At the Water's Edge

The At the Water’s Edge Podcast explores national security and geopolitics from an insider’s perspective, looking at how national power, industrial policy, diplomacy, and military might shape our world and America’s place in it.

At the Water's Edge is a news podcast hosted by Unknown Host, with 90 episodes on record and a Required Pod Score of 80.

Unknown Host hosts At the Water's Edge, a news show with 90 episodes published.

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  At the Water's Edge

  Trump needs a "LAST CHAPTER" in Iran | Trita Parsi

  Sep 29, 202630 min

  Trita Parsi argues Trump is looking for a "last chapter" in Iran, an ending that makes the whole war look worth it, and that diplomacy won't give him one. Iran's president flew to New York in the middle of a war to put a deal on the table, and Trump rejected it within days. Trita Parsi, co-founder and executive vice president of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, joins At the Water's Edge to explain what Iran was really offering and why both sides may be heading toward a third round of war. We discuss why Iran's UNGA proposal mirrors the collapsed MOU, and why sanctions can hurt Iran without changing its policy. Parsi puts the odds of major U.S. escalation after the midterms at 70–80%, and explains why Iran may try to strike first. We also get into what a Democratic Congress could mean for the war and for Secretary Hegseth, and his argument that Europe is already a party to the conflict. On China, he covers Chinese commercial satellite imagery, China's role in holding down oil prices, and the soaring cost of escorting tankers through the Gulf. We close on why Tehran won't make irreversible nuclear concessions to a president it doesn't trust. Chapters: 00:00 Iran's president comes to New York 00:43 Iran's new offer and the MOU 03:16 Are sanctions actually working? 05:52 Has Washington learned anything? 08:10 The odds of U.S. escalation 09:41 What if Democrats win the midterms? 12:03 Why Iran wants a deal before the midterms 14:08 Real offer or message to the world? 16:25 Is Europe already in this war? 20:31 Will China or Russia get involved? 26:06 Could Iran overplay its hand? 28:44 Where to find Trita Parsi Guest: Trita Parsi, Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft quincyinst.org tritaparsi.substack.com X: @tparsi Watch the full video on YouTube: At the Water's Edge Subscribe on Substack: substack.com/@scottatthewatersedgeorg At the Water's Edge is a national security and geopolitics podcast hosted by Scott Kelly, a former Green Beret and one of the last ground force commanders in Afghanistan. Views expressed by guests are their own.

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  At the Water's Edge

  Trump is TRAPPED in Iran's "DIPLOMACY" | Robert Pape

  Sep 28, 202629 min

  Iran offered Trump a seven-day path to end the war. Robert Pape explains why taking it or refusing it both hurt him before the midterms. Iran's president came to the UN in New York with a deal on the table: a quick end to the fighting and a return of nuclear inspectors, in exchange for money up front. University of Chicago political scientist Robert Pape argues the offer is a trap. Any upfront payment from Washington costs Trump with his own base whether Iran delivers or not. Walking away keeps oil prices high heading into the midterms. Either way, Tehran wins. Host Scott Kelly, a former Green Beret, and Pape also discuss: - Why the June MOU fell apart, and why Pape says it's about the balance of power, not who broke it first - What Kissinger's "diplomacy" really meant, and what it tells us about negotiating with Iran - Pape's forecast for Pete Hegseth, and why he says this is only the beginning - Why this winter could be the real reckoning for oil, diesel, and heating fuel, with the Strategic Petroleum Reserve already drawn down - What it means if France sends forces to Saudi Arabia to counter the Houthis, as it is reportedly considering - Why a Europe pulled into the Middle East is a gift to Putin The rest of the Q&A, including whether Israel would attempt an assassination on U.S. soil and Pape's case that Netanyahu isn't running Trump's war, is available now to Briefing Room members on our YouTube channel and will be released for everyone later this week. Follow Robert Pape's analysis on The Escalation Trap: https://escalationtrap.substack.com Subscribe to At the Water's Edge on Substack: https://substack.com/@scottatthewatersedgeorg At the Water's Edge is a national security and geopolitics podcast hosted by Scott Kelly, a former Green Beret, taking a practitioner's view beyond the headlines.

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  At the Water's Edge

  Why Our Special Forces Are Losing the Silent Battle

  Sep 27, 20261h 6m

  Joe Stabley is a Special Forces medic turned physician assistant — one of the most demanding career fields in the military, followed by a doctorate-adjacent civilian one. By any outward measure, he was a success. He also spent the better part of a decade managing suicidal ideation that started with a friend's death on a peacetime deployment before 9/11, and that he describes as something he still lives with today, not something he's recovered from. This conversation traces that whole arc: Jason's suicide in the Sinai when Joe was 19, two more friends lost in the years that followed, a breakdown in an ER that led him to the edge of a freeway overpass, an Adderall dependency that started as a PA-school fix, and the VA and Wounded Warrior Project support that ultimately got him here — now a member of WWP's national campaign team. Joe calls this the most raw interview he's ever given, and it shows. If you or someone you know is in crisis, call or text 988 (Suicide & Crisis Lifeline), or reach the Veterans Crisis Line at 988, press 1. This is Episode 4 of Still Here, a five-part series produced in partnership with Wounded Warrior Project for Suicide Prevention Awareness Month. Catch up with Episodes 1–3 (Zach, Lindsey, and Sam) if you haven't yet. Episode 5 — Lyndsay Tkach, WWP's Director of Mental and Brain Health Services, closing out the series — drops next week. Chapters: 0:00 Welcome, and introducing Joe 0:17 Setting up the paradox: a celebrated medic who decided to die 2:38 Pre-9/11: Jason's suicide at a peacetime outpost in the Sinai 9:08 Iraq, 2007: losing Rob Perelli and carrying the weight forward 11:07 Coming home to a healthcare system that felt broken 13:12 Does military life itself brutalize people, combat or not? 14:31 Genetics, childhood, and service: combat as catalyst, not cause 18:06 Has suicide prevention actually improved since he was 19? 20:14 Was Jason's death alone enough to explain everything? 22:28 "I dedicated my entire life to medicine" — and the weight of not saving people 26:03 "This is the measuring stick by which I judge my existence" 26:52 Medical retirement, and the Green Beret actuarial tables 28:48 Eleven years in, and losing a second friend right after the first 32:48 How does a guy with everything going for him get here? 33:04 PA school begins 33:24 A panic attack in uniform, and the trigger that came out of nowhere 39:23 Diagnosis, Adderall, and a dependency he didn't see coming 40:47 The ER, a schedule with no rhythm, and the first suicidal moment 52:05 Did being a provider make it harder to see it in himself? 52:48 Getting help: the VA, Vet Centers, and finally talking 56:03 "A chronic condition you're managing in real time" 56:18 His advice: don't carry this alone 1:05:32 Closing thoughts Learn more about Wounded Warrior Project: woundedwarriorproject.org

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  At the Water's Edge

  The Real Reason Saudi Arabia Is Buying 48 F-35s

  Sep 25, 202616 min

  For more than a decade, Israel has been the only country in the Middle East flying a fifth-generation stealth fighter. That's about to change. The Trump administration has approved the sale of 48 F-35s and 49 engines to Saudi Arabia. Congress has 30 days to object. It almost certainly won't. But the purchase is counterintuitive. The F-35 has lost some of its luster: one was confirmed hit by radar-directed Iranian ground fire during Operation Epic Fury, and the war in the region suggests cheap drones may beat exquisite airframes. So why would Riyadh spend big on a jet whose stealth advantage has an expiration date? Scott Kelly, former Green Beret and one of the last ground force commanders in Afghanistan, argues the answer has less to do with military effectiveness than with regime survival. A drone force at scale requires a large, competent ground military, and a competent military is a coup risk. Forty-eight pilots are not. In this episode: - Why monarchies prefer air forces to armies - How the F-35 locks Saudi Arabia into the U.S. defense industrial base for decades - "Sell the gun, control the bullets": arms sales as permanent dependency - Israel's legally guaranteed Qualitative Military Edge, and why the Saudi jet will be a U.S.-locked, less capable version of Israel's F-35I - Turkey, Qatar, and the UAE waiting in line What does this mean for Israel? That's in the members-only companion episode in The Briefing Room on YouTube and in the write-up on Substack. Join the Briefing Room: https://www.youtube.com/@AttheWatersEdge-r5e

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  At the Water's Edge

  When the Military is Pulled into Politics | Robert Pape

  Sep 24, 202631 min

  The midterms are five and a half weeks away, and Professor Robert Pape says most of the warnings are aimed at the wrong window. Political violence around elections isn't mainly about intimidating voters before Election Day. The real danger zone opens the moment the polls close and the counting starts, and it runs all the way through certification. The question is whether the losers will accept the loss. Pape joins Scott to talk about his new book, Our Own Worst Enemies: America in the Age of Violent Populism. It draws on five years of research and 20 national surveys of support for political violence in the United States. They get into the domestic escalation trap America is walking into, why the Iran war could give the president much stronger legal footing to use the National Guard or the military at home than he had in 2020, why the guardrails that held in 2020 are gone, and what service members need to understand before any order comes. Get the book: https://www.amazon.com/Our-Own-Worst-Enemies-Populism/dp/1620979586/ref=sr_1_1?dib=eyJ2IjoiMSJ9.vs_iGQNW5qgYzmPAhBuYLw.d8JMeR0ou3Gdzt5HvoGc6u1M8nsI9WC3xo8dzqM5_Ec&dib_tag=se&keywords=9781620979587&linkCode=qs&qid=1790261780&s=books&sr=1-1 Robert Pape's Substack, The Escalation Trap: https://escalationtrap.substack.com

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