
Episode #33
The Market Prices a Hike, Walmart Breaks a Six-Year Streak, and Warsh Takes the Stage
The debate is over as money markets have now fully priced a Federal Reserve rate hike by December. Roman breaks down the July PCE print showing core inflation stuck at 3.3% alongside stalled consumer spending, and why that specific combination sealed the hawkish case. Walmart posted its slowest US comparable sales growth in six years and fell 9%, with management naming $4 gasoline as the direct cause, while off-price retailer Ross beat and jumped 7%, a textbook consumer trade-down signal. Plus: consumer confidence falls to a seven-month low with expectations collapsing 7.8%, Trump shifts to "economic warfare" on Iran with new Treasury sanctions, Canada retaliates with tariffs on $20 billion of US goods effective September 8th, gold notches a fifth straight weekly gain, Nvidia reports tonight in the AI trade's biggest test of the quarter, and Kevin Warsh delivers his first Jackson Hole keynote Friday with the bond market that punished him after July watching closely.

