
Bitcoin Field Notes
Episode 13: Bitcoin's Security Budget Problem: Modeling 2028 and 2032
<p>Episode 13 — Bitcoin Heuristics: Field Notes</p><p>Bitcoin's Security Budget Problem: Modeling 2028 and 2032</p><p>Bitcoin's security depends on miner revenue, which depends on the block subsidy — and that subsidy halves every four years. Fee revenue, the only alternative, has never sustained beyond 7% of mining income. The result is a structural problem: even at $150K/coin with $5M in daily fees, the network would be less secure per dollar of value stored than it is today.</p><p>This episode models three scenarios each for 2028 and 2032, explains why every one shows declining security ratios, and makes five falsifiable predictions grad...

