Climate Unf*cked
How food shortages could collapse the UK government | Professor Paul Behrens
Professor Paul Behrens of the Oxford martin School at the University of Oxford works at the intersection of food systems, climate change, and food security. Originally trained in physics and astronomy, he spent years working on energy systems before turning his attention to what he now believes is one of the most fragile and underestimated threats we face: the food system that feeds us. Paul is the author of the popular science book, The Best of Times, The Worst of Times: Futures from the Frontiers of Climate Science (Indigo Press, 2021) which describes humanity’s current trajectory and possible futures in paired chapters of pessimism and hope. His research and writing on climate, energy, and food, has appeared in scientific journals and media outlets such as the BBC, The Guardian, Thomson Reuters, Politico, Nature Sustainability, Nature Energy, PNAS, Nature Food, and We cover Climate change is already driving a third of food price inflation in the UK, with drought, flooding, geopolitical instability, and energy shocks potentially pushing prices to 1970s levels The UK holds between three days and three weeks of food storage; Finland has nine months A Joint Intelligence Committee report on ecosystem collapse was suppressed before being released in abridged form. Animals lose between 80–97% of the calories fed to them; that inefficiency becomes catastrophic as climate change shrinks the productive biosphere Shifting to a planetary health diet could reduce emissions by 61%, spare an area the size of Scotland, and save the NHS tens of billions of pounds a year We massively underestimate each other's willingness to act on climate — 60% of people intending to vote Reform support onshore wind turbines Over 40% of the UK supports a meat tax, despite politicians treating it as political suicide Food price spikes historically drive political instability and state collapse; climate change contributed to the Syrian conflict and is already destabilising politics worldwide Trump's election and the current political atmosphere are partly driven by climate impacts we're not naming as such Denmark's food transition plan is the most credible government approach in the world New York hospitals made plant-based meals the default and found them cheaper, healthier, and more popular Far more grazing land could support arable agriculture than commonly assumed Heritage arguments about land use are recent and shouldn't override future food security Rewilding and nature management could increase farmer incomes while restoring biodiversity —— Find Paul's work and research at the University of Oxford Read the National Emergency Briefing at https://www.nebriefing.org/ Subscribe to the Climate Unf*cked podcast at https://climateunfucked.substack.com/ And connect with me on LinkedIn at: https://www.linkedin.com/in/rob-coop/ —— Chapters 00:00 Should we be worried about food system collapse? 04:03 Are we choosing this change or being forced into it? 04:33 The thermodynamics of a shrinking food supply 07:22 What the "planetary health diet" looks like 09:30 How to rewild land the size of Scotland 11:54 Why food decisions are emotional 13:48 We wildly underestimate how much people care 16:25 Meat Tax 18:52 The purpose of misinformation 24:47 How much bad diets are costing the NHS 27:12 The supressed gov. report on food collapse 33:11 The link between food prices and state collapse 36:04 Trump, cost of living and the politics of instability 38:33 Is any country actually food secure? 41:01 The UK has 3 days of food storage. Finland has 9 months 46:19 Could we grow crops on grazing land instead? 51:07 Why plants = electrification for humans 55:58 Denmark's groundbreaking plan 59:10 The NYC hospital expreiment 1:01:02 Paul's billboard message to the world 1:03:48 The one paper Paul wishes everyone would read 1:05:14 What to actually do today
