Excess Returns

Excess Returns is dedicated to making you a better long-term investor and making complex investing topics understandable. Join Jack Forehand, Justin Carbonneau and Matt Zeigler as they sit down with some of the most interesting names in finance to discuss topics like macroeconomics, value investing, factor investing, and more. Subscribe to learn along with us.

Excess Returns is a business podcast hosted by Unknown Host, with 548 episodes on record and a Required Pod Score of 80. PitchCentric scores this show on Booking Probability, Listen Score, and live audience signals refreshed every 24 hours.

Unknown Host hosts Excess Returns, a business show with 548 episodes published.

Our AI reads these to draft pitches. Use them as grounding for a pitch that cites a real guest and a specific topic.

• 

  Excess Returns

  We Asked Value Legend Bob Robotti Why the Real AI Trade Isn't AI — And Why Passive Helps Stock Pickers

  Aug 18, 20261h 8m

  Bob Robotti, founder and CIO of Robotti & Company, joins Matt Zeigler and Bogumil Baranowski to explain why bottom-up value investing may be entering one of its best opportunity sets in decades. They discuss AI and reindustrialization, inflation and interest rates, passive investing, capital cycles, private equity, long-term ownership, and why today's neglected industrial businesses may offer opportunities that the market is missing. Bob Robotti on X https://x.com/BobRobotti Robotti & Company https://www.robotti.com Topics covered How Bob finds misunderstood businesses with latent earnings power Why his "grassroots macro" process starts with company-level supply and demand How AI spending is increasing demand for energy, copper, aluminum, cement and other physical assets Why North America's natural gas advantage could support a long-term reindustrialization cycle Why persistent inflation could force higher interest rates and lower valuation multiples Why no competitive moat is permanent, even for today's dominant technology companies How passive investing and shorter time horizons can create opportunities for fundamental stock pickers Why prolonged downturns can improve industry economics through consolidation and reduced capacity Why Bob views himself as an active owner rather than an activist investor Why he is skeptical of today's private equity model and its expansion into retirement portfolios The NewMarket investment that taught him the cost of selling a great business too early Why he thinks individual company research can outperform indexing over the next decade Timestamps 00:00 Intro 04:02 Grassroots macro and the search for latent earnings power 08:37 Why Bob started his own investment firm 13:00 How AI creates demand for the physical economy 17:59 Why Bob avoids the mega-cap technology companies 22:00 Inflation, interest rates and the valuation risk investors may be missing 26:07 Why no competitive moat is permanent 31:36 How passive investing creates opportunities for stock pickers 36:00 Why Bob believes the "fallen" areas of the market can rise again 40:06 How bad business conditions create better long-term investments 44:39 Active ownership, boards and understanding businesses from the inside 48:59 Why Bob is skeptical of modern private equity 55:15 The biggest loss of his career: selling a winner too early 01:03:32 The one investing lesson Bob would teach everyone Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network: https://excessreturns.co No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

  ListenShow Notes
• 

  Excess Returns

  Jim Paulsen Sees a Growth Scare Coming | The 34 Charts That Make Him Cautious

  Aug 14, 20261h 1m

  In this episode of The Jim Paulsen Show, Jim explains why weakening labor data, softening inflation, and lagged policy tightening could shift markets from inflation fears toward growth and recession fears. He also breaks down why the AI productivity boom may be overstated, how AI capital spending is supporting the economy, why Treasury yields look too high, and why investors may want to rebalance from new era technology stocks toward old era stocks and bonds. Subscribe to the Jim Paulsen Show on Spotify⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠Subscribe to the Jim Paulsen Show on Apple Podcasts Topics Covered Why weak jobs data and benign inflation have changed the outlook for the Federal Reserve Labor force contraction, stalled job growth, and the risks facing consumer spending Housing affordability, services activity, real income, savings, and signs of economic weakness How the stock-bond correlation can reveal a shift from inflation fears to growth and recession fears Why Jim expects Fed rate cuts before year-end and sees downside risk for Treasury yields How higher oil prices, bond yields, and the dollar can hit stocks and the economy with a lag Why today's AI productivity boom may be a mirage rather than a repeat of the 1960s or 1990s How AI CapEx, core capital goods orders, and technology stocks are linked Why the 10-year Treasury yield may be mispriced relative to growth and inflation The widening divide between new era and old era stocks and what it could mean for portfolio allocation Timestamps 00:00 Jim's outlook: weak jobs, benign inflation, and growth fears 04:11 Labor force rollover and consumer warning signs 09:06 Real income collapse and economic surprise data 13:06 Why bond yields could fall below 4 percent 17:45 Why Jim expects Fed cuts instead of hikes 22:07 How policy tightening hits the economy with a lag 26:16 Why productivity gains can be a recession mirage 30:20 What a true productivity boom looks like 34:38 AI stocks as a leading signal for capital spending 39:08 Why Treasury yields may be mispriced 44:31 Oil, core inflation, and the case for easing 48:32 New era versus old era correlation as a warning 52:54 Why today's AI economy may be more vulnerable than dot-com 57:22 Portfolio allocation takeaways: bonds, old era, and tech Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network: https://excessreturns.co No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

  ListenShow Notes
• 

  Excess Returns

  We Asked T. Rowe's $8 Billion Tech Manager Why We Are in 1998 — And Why Software Is in Trouble

  Aug 11, 20261h 1m

  T. Rowe Price technology portfolio manager Dom Rizzo joins Jack Forehand and Kai Wu to break down the AI investment cycle, hyperscaler capital spending, semiconductor demand, and why the recent tech selloff may look more like 1998 than the end of the boom. They discuss AI return on investment, OpenAI and Anthropic, open versus closed models, financing the data center buildout, the future of software, labor productivity, and how to construct a global technology portfolio. Topics covered Why Dom sees similarities between the 2026 semiconductor correction and the 1998 selloff Why hyperscaler AI CapEx could accelerate from already historic levels What cloud revenue growth and operating margins say about AI return on invested capital Why end-user productivity is the key test for sustainable AI demand Open-weight models versus frontier labs and where AI economic value may accrue Why chips, memory, logic semiconductors, TSMC and ASML sit at critical points in the AI value chain How equity, debt and operating cash flow could finance the next stage of the data center buildout Why semiconductors remain cyclical even in a structurally capital-intensive AI boom Why AI agents could turn traditional enterprise software into data pipes AI productivity, labor displacement and the case for faster GDP growth How Dom thinks about technology portfolio construction, risk factors and global stock selection Timestamps 00:00 AI, the tech correction and the 1998 comparison 04:07 Why the AI capital spending cycle may only be halfway 12:33 The real test for AI demand: end-user ROI 17:00 Why frontier models may capture most of the economic value 21:23 Where the biggest AI moats and profit pools could emerge 28:12 Financing the AI buildout with equity and debt 36:03 Are semiconductors in a supercycle or still cyclical? 41:43 What AI agents mean for traditional software companies 46:03 AI productivity versus labor displacement 51:01 Building a portfolio for a technology revolution 56:06 Global tech opportunities and Dom's stock-picking framework Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network: https://excessreturns.co No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

  ListenShow Notes
• 

  Excess Returns

  David Rosenberg and Rich Bernstein on What Ends the AI Trade — And What They Own Instead

  Aug 8, 20261h 4m

  Richard Bernstein and David Rosenberg reunite to debate the Federal Reserve, inflation, the AI investment boom, market bubbles, gold and the case for international diversification. The former Merrill Lynch colleagues examine whether the Fed should raise rates, how AI CapEx is reshaping the U.S. economy, why credit markets may lead the AI trade, what is driving gold, and where investors may find opportunities outside the mega-cap U.S. market. Topics covered Why the Taylor Rule points toward higher rates and why Rosenberg thinks the Fed should not hike What slowing GDP growth, productivity and labor costs suggest about underlying inflation How AI CapEx and data center spending may be misallocating capital away from housing and the broader economy Why the current AI boom differs from the late-1990s technology bubble How credit spreads, CDS markets and financing costs could signal trouble in the AI trade before equities do What real interest rates, the U.S. dollar and central bank demand mean for gold Why Bernstein views gold as a portfolio spare tire rather than a short-term trade Why non-U.S. stocks and international markets may offer a better valuation and growth opportunity How AI exposure extends beyond the Mag Seven into financials, industrials and utilities Why CAPE valuations, leverage, sentiment and market positioning point to a highly speculative U.S. market Why diversification becomes most unpopular when investors may need it most What Bob Farrell's market rules say about crowded positioning and consensus forecasts Timestamps 00:00 Introduction 08:31 Why Rosenberg thinks the Fed should not hike 16:02 AI, data centers and capital misallocation 25:08 What is driving gold: real rates, the dollar and central banks 36:11 Why Bernstein sees a secular shift toward non-U.S. stocks 41:41 How AI concentration extends beyond the technology sector 48:31 International diversification as protection from AI concentration 54:06 Bob Farrell's Rule 9 and the danger of consensus 1:00:06 The housing-cycle warning Bernstein and Rosenberg saw before the financial crisis Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network: https://excessreturns.co No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

  ListenShow Notes
• 

  Episode #473

  4% Inflation. Stretched Valuations. Why Is the Market Still Risk-On? | Tian Yang

  Aug 6, 20261 hourS1

  Tian Yang, head of research at Variant Perception and portfolio manager of the VPX ETF, explains how investors can use adaptive leading indicators, capital cycle analysis and behavioral signals to navigate a market shaped by AI spending, inflation and government intervention. He breaks down why the macro backdrop remains risk-on, what would signal a true market top, why a Federal Reserve rate hike may still be unlikely and how AI could reshape profits, jobs and portfolio construction. Variant Perception https://www.variantperception.com/ Variant Perception Cycle Aware US Equity ETF https://etf.variantperception.com/ Topics covered How first-principles thinking separates causal signals from noisy data Why static recession indicators and consumer sentiment have become less reliable How Variant Perception combines growth, inflation, policy and liquidity into a Macro Risk Indicator Why AI capital spending and low savings rates are supporting economic resilience How AI profits could broaden from hardware bottlenecks to adopters and complementary assets Why the sovereign technology race may extend the AI investment cycle What savings rates, liquidity, leverage and cash settlement reveal about recessions and market tops How potential SpaceX, Anthropic and OpenAI supply could affect public equity markets What capital cycle and crowding signals say about semiconductors and hyperscalers Why headline inflation may stay high without creating persistent core inflation How the K-shaped consumer, labor market and Federal Reserve reform shape the policy outlook How AI could widen economic inequality, compress wages and change investment research How the VPX ETF uses adaptive sector tilts, stock selection and active risk Timestamps 00:00 First principles, causal data and leading indicators 04:48 Why traditional recession indicators stopped working 09:00 Building the Macro Risk Indicator 13:02 How AI CapEx is keeping the economy resilient 17:18 Is the AI boom different from past bubbles? 21:32 Why rising savings rates often precede recessions 26:11 Why the market-top warning is amber, not red 30:58 Are semiconductors still cyclical? 36:22 Why an oil shock may not force the Fed to hike 42:12 How Kevin Warsh could reform the Federal Reserve 46:50 The increasingly bifurcated economy 51:11 How AI is changing investment research 55:38 Active risk, playing the game and avoiding forced errors Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network: https://excessreturns.co No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

  ListenShow Notes

Recent guests on Excess Returns. Study who booked and why before you pitch.

Based on semantic analysis of episode topics and host coverage, this show is a strong guest fit for executives in:

Industry fit is computed by PitchCentric using vector embeddings of the show's episode catalog.