Fire Science Show
265 - How fires can lead to a nuclear winter? with Stephen Welch
As a kid of 80s and 90s, a lot of the pop culture was around the post-apocalyptic scenarios following a nuclear exchange. I always thought a nuclear winter is a consequence of atomic bombs falling down, but now as a fire researcher I've learnt it is mostly about fires, after all. Today I sit down with Dr Stephen Welch (University of Edinburgh) to trace the fire-engineering-heavy pathway from mass urban ignitions to firestorms, through soot production and its injection into the stratosphere, up to global climate impacts. The uncomfortable twist is that the energy release from the fires can dominate the scenario, and the climate outcome depends on whether a fraction of that smoke gets high enough and stays there long enough to matter. We dig into what makes a firestorm different from a big fire: the burned-area thresholds, the requirement for many structures burning at once, and the extreme winds a firestorm can generate on its own. Then we connect urban firestorms to what we’ve learned from megafires and satellite observations, including measured, non-zero global cooling effects, tracing reference datapoints that allow us to approximate the scale needed for a considerable climate impacts. That modern data from wildfires or volcanic eruptions becomes a rare validation anchor for a problem that historically relied on older assumptions and is inherently limited in terms of potential validation. From there, we go straight into the messy details fire engineers care about: fuel load density, modern plastics, under-ventilated compartment fires, glazing failure, and why soot yields taken from small, well-ventilated tests can be misleading when soot mass is the whole point. All of those, but considering large city fire at once. We also talk modeling options, from CFD to coupled atmosphere simulations, and why “consistent engineering crudeness” is sometimes the only honest starting point. In fact, we dive pretty deep into soot formation and modelling, as the classic "yield" approach we use for everyday fire engineering breaks down at scale of fires discussed here. At the same time, the exact amount of carbon injected into stratosphere is the number deciding of the final impact, therefore it requires a better justification. I am sure you will enjoy this conversation, as it ties multiple important aspects of fire engineering, tied all into a challenging and interesting research question. How do fires lead to a nuclear winter? ---- The Fire Science Show is produced by the Fire Science Media in collaboration with OFR Consultants. Thank you to the podcast sponsor for their continuous support towards our mission.
