
Episode #161
He Was Right About AI...So How Did He Lose $35 Billion?
A former OpenAI researcher correctly saw where the AI boom was headed, built a hedge fund around that prediction, and watched it grow to roughly $45 billion in assets. Then July happened. Leopold Aschenbrenner’s Situational Awareness fund lost 67% of its portfolio, wiping out roughly $35 billion. But the interesting part of this story is that his original bet on AI may not have been wrong. So how do you lose $35 billion while being right about the bigger trend? In this episode of First Sip, I break down what happened, what a hedge fund actually is, how leverage can multiply both your wins and losses, and how a margin call can force you to sell an investment even when you still believe in it. More importantly, we get into the lesson that applies far beyond Wall Street: being right doesn’t matter if you don’t have enough runway to survive being early. If you’re building a business, investing, using debt, or betting on an idea you believe in, this is a story worth understanding. Stay tuned, stay curious, and as always, enjoy your first sip. Click here to watch the full episode on YouTube What did you think about this episode? -------------------------------- Get the First Sip Field Notes: A weekly newsletter for curious people building better businesses, careers, and lives. You'll also get a free tool to help you decide if that idea you're sitting on is actually worth building. https://firstsipfieldnotes.beehiiv.com/subscribe CONNECT WITH DEKIMBE: YouTube Instagram Facebook LinkedIn FOLLOW THE PODCAST: Instagram Apple Podcasts Spotify For podcast sponsorship & advertising opportunities please contact: firstsippod@gmail.com






