Market Misbehavior with David Keller, CMT

On the Market Misbehavior Podcast, host Dave Keller, CMT, keeps things real as he breaks down what’s moving the markets and why it matters to investors. With a genuine, down-to-earth approach, Dave chats with top investment experts about what they’re seeing in the markets and digs into the psychology that shapes our investing choices. It’s not just market talk—it’s about helping you understand the bigger picture and avoid common pitfalls. Whether you’re a seasoned investor or just market-curious, tune in for straightforward discussions and actionable tips for upgrading your investing game.

Market Misbehavior with David Keller, CMT is a business podcast hosted by Dave Keller, CMT, with 129 episodes on record and a Required Pod Score of 80.

Dave Keller, CMT hosts Market Misbehavior with David Keller, CMT, a business show with 129 episodes published.

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  Market Misbehavior with David Keller, CMT

  The Market's Only Job | 2026 Options & Trading Psychology with JJ Kinahan

  Sep 27, 202644 min

  In this episode of the Market Misbehavior podcast, Dave is joined by JJ Kinahan, Senior Vice President at Cboe Global Markets. Recorded September 24th 2026. JJ shares timeless trading wisdom from his early days as a pit trader, explaining why learning to "break even" and cut losers is the most critical survival skill for any investor. We dig into why equity traders should always consult the options chain to understand the implied move of a stock, how the VIX serves as a risk monitor (and why a reading over 25 demands your attention), and the rise of Zero DTE (Days to Expiration) options as a precise hedging tool for both retail and institutional traders. The conversation also explores Cboe's push into SEC-regulated prediction markets, allowing investors to trade specific corporate KPIs (like Amazon Web Services revenue) rather than relying on the unpredictable stock reactions that often follow earnings reports. Topics Covered • Timeless trading wisdom: Why surviving the first six months in the options pit required learning to break even and ruthlessly cut losing trades • Using options data for equity trading: Why checking the "implied move" of a stock (e.g., Apple or Netflix) prevents emotional decision-making when volatility strikes • The truth about 0DTE (Zero Days to Expiration) options: How the market is evenly split between retail speculation and precise institutional daily hedging • Understanding the VIX: Why a reading of 15 is a green-yellow light, 20 is a yellow light, and 25 is a flashing warning to pay attention • The psychological power of trading in "partials": Why scaling in and out of risk prevents the catastrophic "all-or-nothing" panic selling that plagues retail investors • Navigating the new frontier of SEC-regulated prediction markets: Trading specific corporate KPIs (like Home Depot's Home & Garden revenue) rather than the overall stock price • Generating synthetic yield: How selling covered calls (thinking in terms of the strike price plus premium) allows investors to enhance returns while defining their exit points • Why "Hope" is a dangerous four-letter word: The fatal mistake of turning a defined short-term trade into a long-term investment because it went against you Take Dave’s FREE course on behavioral investing: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/freecourse Check out Dave’s recommended reading list: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/readinglist Follow Dave on X: https://x.com/DKellerCMT Follow Dave on Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/dkellercmt.bsky.social Follow Dave on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/marketmisbehavior Follow Dave on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/marketmisbehavior The content in this presentation should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is intended for educational purposes only and in no way should be considered as investment advice.

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  Market Misbehavior with David Keller, CMT

  Don't Jump in Front of the Freight Train! | 2026 Tech Dominance & RRGs with Julius de Kempenaer

  Sep 24, 202638 min

  In this episode of the Market Misbehavior podcast, Dave is joined by Julius de Kempenaer, Founder of RRG Research and creator of the Relative Rotation Graph. Recorded September 22nd 2026. Celebrating the 20th anniversary of the RRG's early development, Julius shares masterclass-level techniques for reading rotation, emphasizing why the 0 to 90-degree "northeast heading" is the ultimate technical sweet spot. We dig into why horrible market breadth doesn't matter when the mega-cap tech "freight train" (MAG7 and XLK) makes up 50% of the index and is breaking out to new highs, making shorting a catastrophic mistake. The conversation also explores advanced RRG tactics like swapping benchmarks to find hidden alpha in weak sectors, mapping absolute returns using the $ONE benchmark, and identifying the stealth rotation of defensive sectors that signals a true market warning. Topics Covered • Celebrating 20 years of the Relative Rotation Graph (RRG): From early scatter plots at Fidelity to a staple visualization on global financial terminals • Mastering the RRG "heading": Why a 0 to 90-degree northeast trajectory is the most powerful indicator of relative strength and momentum • The "freight train" market: Why horrible underlying breadth is completely overridden when Technology and the MAG7 are pushing toward all-time highs • Advanced benchmark swapping: How institutional managers change the center point to SPY or $ONE to find hidden outperforming stocks inside lagging sectors • The ultimate market warning sign: Watching defensive sectors (Utilities, Staples, Healthcare) quietly push into the "Improving" quadrant while offensive sectors roll over • Reconciling multiple timeframes: How to read a sector like Energy that is firmly "Leading" on the weekly RRG but taking a negative-heading breather on the daily chart • Why technical analysts have the luxury of reacting to the market's reality rather than trying to predict the exact peak of a momentum cycle Take Dave’s FREE course on behavioral investing: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/freecourse Check out Dave’s recommended reading list: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/readinglist Follow Dave on X: https://x.com/DKellerCMT Follow Dave on Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/dkellercmt.bsky.social Follow Dave on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/marketmisbehavior Follow Dave on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/marketmisbehavior The content in this presentation should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is intended for educational purposes only and in no way should be considered as investment advice.

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  Market Misbehavior with David Keller, CMT

  It's All About the Timeframe | Riding the Elliott Wave with Kyle Crystal

  Sep 13, 202647 min

  In this episode of the Market Misbehavior podcast, Dave is joined by Kyle Crystal, CMT, founder of Lake Shore Technical Analysis and portfolio manager at Crystal Capital Advisors. Recorded September 10th 2026. Kyle discusses his unique journey from studying jazz guitar to becoming a portfolio manager, exploring the deep cognitive parallels between reading musical scores and analyzing technical chart slopes. We dig into his rigorous approach to multiple timeframe analysis, why he strictly lives in the "weekly-to-daily" sweet spot to stay profitable and happy, and how the 2009 financial crisis proved that a company's fundamentals are often entirely disconnected from its stock price. The conversation also explores the misunderstood genius of Elliott Wave theory for defining risk and reward, the critical difference between forecasting "things that walk" (equities/meats) versus "things that grow" (grains), and the painful lessons learned from applying the wrong momentum tools to the wrong asset classes. Topics Covered • The musician's edge in finance: Exploring the visual, right-brain connections between reading jazz charts and analyzing technical price action • Surviving the 2009 crash: Why Kyle abandoned pure fundamental analysis after realizing that a great company does not necessarily equal a great stock • Decoding multiple timeframes: Mapping the exact duration and magnitude expectations for daily, weekly, and monthly chart signals • The "Weekly-to-Daily" sweet spot: Why living in higher timeframes causes delayed reactions, while zooming in too close destroys your lifestyle • Demystifying Elliott Wave theory: How to correctly use wave structures as a "logic calculator" to strictly define risk and reward levels • Why Elliott Wave gets a bad reputation: The danger of analysts trying to predict massive, multi-year macro structures instead of actionable, near-term waves • The "Walk vs. Grow" framework: Understanding the distinct personality differences between trading equities/meats ("things that walk") versus grains/softs ("things that grow") • Learning through pain: How failing in the commodities market taught Kyle that standard equity momentum oscillators do not easily translate to agricultural futures Take Dave’s FREE course on behavioral investing: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/freecourse Check out Dave’s recommended reading list: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/readinglist Follow Dave on X: https://x.com/DKellerCMT Follow Dave on Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/dkellercmt.bsky.social Follow Dave on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/marketmisbehavior Follow Dave on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/marketmisbehavior The content in this presentation should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is intended for educational purposes only and in no way should be considered as investment advice.

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  Market Misbehavior with David Keller, CMT

  965 Billion | How The Mag 3 TRIPLED Amazons all time profits with Kevin Carter

  Sep 12, 202640 min

  In this episode of the Market Misbehavior podcast, Dave sits down with Kevin Carter, Founder and Chief Investment Officer of EMQQ Global and EMX ETF. Recorded September 8th 2026. Kevin breaks down the global AI ecosystem into a distinct "five-layer stack," explaining why emerging markets—specifically Taiwan, South Korea, and China—control the most critical infrastructure and hardware components powering the revolution. We dig into the staggering profitability of the "Mag Three" hardware leaders (TSMC, Samsung, and SK Hynix), why China's open-source AI models are quietly powering 80% of US startups at a fraction of the cost, and how the new China AI Tigers ETF (TGRZ) captures the highly volatile "magic layer" of large language models. The conversation also explores the massive geopolitical risks surrounding ASML lithography machines, China's massive energy capacity advantage, and how application-layer giants like Mercado Libre are successfully monetizing AI to accelerate revenue today. Links: China AI Tigers LLM ETF (TGRZ) https://emxetf.com/ The Emerging Markets Internet ETF (EMQQ) https://emqqglobaletfs.com/emqq-fund-materials Topics Covered • Breaking down the five-layer AI stack: Energy, Chips, Data Centers, Models, and Applications • The "Mag Three" windfall: Why TSMC, Samsung, and SK Hynix are projected to generate a staggering $965 billion in combined profits • The open-source model advantage: How Chinese AI labs (the "Tigers") offer cheaper, highly competitive models that can be run locally • The startup reliance: Why an estimated 80% of US startups are currently utilizing China's open-source AI models • Geopolitical choke points: The ongoing battle over ASML extreme ultraviolet lithography machines and China's push for semiconductor self-sufficiency • China's massive power advantage: Why having three times the energy capacity of the US, Europe, and India combined is critical for the global AI race • Evaluating the extreme "11 out of 10" volatility and geopolitical risks of investing in the new TGRZ ETF • The Application Layer in action: How emerging market giants like Mercado Libre and Tencent are successfully monetizing digital AI to accelerate revenue today Take Dave’s FREE course on behavioral investing: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/freecourse Check out Dave’s recommended reading list: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/readinglist Follow Dave on X: https://x.com/DKellerCMT Follow Dave on Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/dkellercmt.bsky.social Follow Dave on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/marketmisbehavior Follow Dave on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/marketmisbehavior The content in this presentation should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is intended for educational purposes only and in no way should be considered as investment advice.

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  Market Misbehavior with David Keller, CMT

  The Fine Art of Doing Nothing | The Fly and Die IPO with Dave Landry

  Sep 9, 202642 min

  In this episode of the Market Misbehavior podcast, Dave is joined by veteran trader, educator, and founder of davelandry.com, Dave Landry. Recorded September 2nd 2026. Dave shares his minimalist approach to the markets, explaining why stripping away complex indicators to focus on pure price action is the ultimate key to trading consistency. The conversation dives deeply into the psychology of patience—highlighting why highly successful professionals often make the worst traders because they are conditioned to always take action. We explore his specific money management rules for scaling out of positions, the mechanics of his TFM (Trend Following Moron) 10% system designed to completely sidestep devastating bear markets, and why market cycles are compressing due to rampant leverage. They also break down his technical playbook for IPOs, examining the "fly and die" pattern that recently played out in the SpaceX IPO. Topics Covered • Why adding complex technical indicators is a trap, and how the ultimate enlightenment comes from stripping it all back to a blank chart • The psychology of patience: Why highly proactive, successful professionals (like doctors and lawyers) often make the worst traders • Scaling out for a "free ride": Taking half off, moving stops to break even, and letting the remaining position capture the long-term trend • The TFM (Trend Following Moron) 10% system: A brilliantly simple moving-average rule to keep you out of devastating bear markets • Trading the SpaceX IPO: Understanding the "fly and die" cycle and why you should never buy a new issue before its fifth day of trading • Time compression in modern markets: Why excessive derivatives and leverage are shortening bull-bear cycles, making short-selling a necessary skill • The dangers of "mental monetization" (e.g., boat shopping while in a winning trade) and how extraneous life influences destroy trading discipline Take Dave’s FREE course on behavioral investing: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/freecourse Check out Dave’s recommended reading list: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/readinglist Follow Dave on X: https://x.com/DKellerCMT Follow Dave on Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/dkellercmt.bsky.social Follow Dave on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/marketmisbehavior Follow Dave on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/marketmisbehavior The content in this presentation should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is intended for educational purposes only and in no way should be considered as investment advice.

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