Episode #1
Robin Hanson: The man who wants to run governments on prediction markets
️NEXTPredict Podcast #1 with Robin Hanson, Assoc. Professor, Economics at George Mason UniversityRobin Hanson has been arguing we should "bet on what's true" since the late 1980s — decades before Kalshi and Polymarket turned prediction markets into a billion-dollar industry. A physicist-turned-economist who helped invent the market-making math running under today's biggest betting platforms, Hanson joins the show to explain why prediction markets are having their moment now, what's next for the space, and why he thinks the real prize isn't sports betting. It's "decision markets" that could change how governments, companies, and the Fed make decisions?⏰ Timestamps: 00:00 - Intro: who is Robin Hanson 01:40 - What is a prediction market? 04:06 - Why now: the regulatory shift behind the boom 06:32 - Decision markets: paying for better information 13:50 - Governments, the Fed, and antitrust by market 17:40 - Diverse perspectives and trader bias 21:50 - Insider trading and the "Rounders" problem 26:54 - Gambling addiction and who should regulate prediction markets 30:54 - Wisdom of crowds vs. first principles: the Nokia/iPhone test 34:55 - Futarchy: replacing shareholder votes with markets 35:43 - Where is this space heading in three years? 38:35 - Final thoughts: keeping companies honest 40:11 - Sign-off SUBSCRIBE TO THE PODCASTYoutube: https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PLFqA5f5TsdM0&si=nrKerx5GXu4mDYI4Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast...CONNECT WITH NEXTPredict✩ Website: https://nextpredict.io/
