Probable Causation

A show about law, economics, and crime. Hosted by Jennifer Doleac, economist and author of The Science of Second Chances: A Revolution in Criminal Justice.

Probable Causation is a society podcast hosted by Jennifer Doleac, with 171 episodes on record and a Required Pod Score of 80. PitchCentric scores this show on Booking Probability, Listen Score, and live audience signals refreshed every 24 hours.

Jennifer Doleac hosts Probable Causation, a society show with 171 episodes published.

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  Episode #170

  Episode 126: Juan Vargas on the unintended consequences of an anti-drug policy in Colombia

  Jun 2, 20261h 13m

  Juan Vargas talks about the unintended consequences of an anti-drug policy in Colombia. " The Rise and Persistence of Illegal Crops: Evidence from a Naive Policy Announcement " by Mounu Prem, Juan F. Vargas, and Daniel Mejía. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “ Inside the war on drugs: Effectiveness and unintended consequences of a large illicit crops eradication program in Colombia " by Alberto Abadie, Maria C. Acevedo, Maurice Kugler, and Juan Vargas. “ Estimating the causal effect of forced eradication on coca cultivation in Colombian municipalities " by Luis Carlos Reyes. “ On the effects of enforcement on illegal markets: Evidence from a quasi-experiment in Colombia " by Daniel Mejía, Pascual Restrepo, and Sandra V. Rozo. “ Bushes and bullets: Illegal cocaine markets and violence in Colombia " by Daniel Mejía and Pascual Restrepo. “ Rural windfall or a new resource curse? Coca, income, and civil conflict in Colombia " by Joshua D. Angrist and Adriana D. Kugler. “ A geography of illicit crops (coca leaf) and armed conflict in Colombia " by Ana María Díaz and Fabio Sánchez. “ The health consequences of aerial spraying illicit crops: The case of Colombia " by Adriana Camacho and Daniel Mejía. “ Deforestation and Coca Cultivation Rooted in Twentieth-Century Development Projects " by Liliana M. Dávalos, Karina M. Sanchez, and Dolors Armenteras. " Making a Narco: Childhood Exposure to Illegal Labor Markets and Criminal Life Paths " by Maria Micaela Sviatschi. " Coca-Based Local Growth and Its Socio-Economic Impact in Colombia " by Lucas Marín Llanes, Manuel Fernández Sierra, María Alejandra Vélez, Eduard F. Martínez-González, and Paulo Jose Murillo-Sandoval. " Cocaine Goes Bananas: Global Spillovers from an Illicit Supply Shock " by Gianmarco Daniele, Adam Soliman, and Juan F. Vargas. Want more? Check out my new book! The Science of Second Chances: A Revolution in Criminal Justice is available now. I have a Substack! Sign up for Probable Causation: The Newsletter .

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  Episode #169

  Episode 125: David Phillips on the effects of free public transit

  May 5, 202656 min

  David Phillips talks about the effects of providing free public transit. " Eliminating Fares to Expand Opportunities: Experimental Evidence on the Impacts of Free Public Transportation on Economic and Social Disparities " by Rebecca Brough, Matthew Freedman, and David C. Phillips. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “ Getting to Work: Experimental Evidence on Job Search and Transportation Costs " by David C. Phillips. “ Public Transit and the Spatial Distribution of Minority Employment: Evidence from a Natural Experiment " by Harry Holzer, John Quigley, and Steven Raphael. “ The Effects of the Announcement and Opening of Light Rail Transit Stations on Neighborhood Crime " by Stephen Billings, Suzanne Leland, and David Swindell. " Means-Tested Public Transportation Subsidies: Causal Evidence and Implications " by Seoyoon Ahn, Matthew Freedman, David Phillips, and Atheendar Venkataramani. “ The Role of the Fare in Welfare: Public Transportation Subsidies and Their Effects on Low-Income Households" by Seth Chizeck and Oluchi Mbonu. “ Do Free and Discounted Fares Increase Transit Use, Well-being, and Employment for Low-Income Residents? Evidence from a Pilot Program in Washington, DC " by Alyssa Huberts, Roxanne Oroxom, Kayleigh B. Campbell, Katherine N. Gan, Danielle Moore, and Sam Quinney. Want more? Check out my new book! The Science of Second Chances: A Revolution in Criminal Justice is available now.

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  Episode #168

  Bonus episode 16: Jennifer Doleac and Kathryn Paige Harden in conversation about their new books

  Apr 7, 20261h 10m

  Jennifer Doleac and Kathryn Paige Harden have a conversation about their new books, both about crime and punishment. Jen’s book: The Science of Second Chances: A Revolution in Criminal Justice . Paige’s book: Original Sin: On the Genetics of Vice, the Problem of Blame, and the Future of Forgiveness . Jennifer Doleac is the Executive Vice President of Criminal Justice at Arnold Ventures. Paige Harden is a Professor of Psychology at the University of Texas at Austin.

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  Episode #167

  Episode 124: Steeve Marchand on the effects of prison programs

  Mar 10, 20261h 2m

  Steeve Marchand talks about the effects of prison programs on behavior. " Prison Rehabilitation Programs and Recidivism: Evidence from Variations in Availability " by William Arbour, Guy Lacroix, and Steeve Marchand. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “ Thinking, fast and slow? Some field experiments to reduce crime and dropout in Chicago " by Sara B. Heller, Anuj K. Shah, Jonathan Guryan, Jens Ludwig, Sendhil Mullainathan, and Harold A. Pollack. “ Does incarceration length affect labor market outcomes? ” by Rasmus Landersø. “ Incarceration, recidivism, and employment " by Manudeep Bhuller, Gordon B. Dahl, Katrine V. Løken, and Magne Mogstad. “ Tough on young offenders: Harmful or helpful? ” by Giulia Lotti. “ Leave the door open? Prison conditions and recidivism " by Giovanni Mastrobuoni and Daniele Terlizzese. “ Do better prisons reduce recidivism? Evidence from a prison construction program " by Santigo Tobón. “ 'Something Works' in U.S. Jails: Misconduct and Recidivism Effects of the IGNITE Program ” by Marcella Alsan, Arkey Barnett, Peter Hull, and Crystal Yang. Probable Causation Episode 113: Peter Hull " Can prisons move people into better jobs? A look at correctional vocational training programs and sectoral employment outcomes" by Britte van Tiem. " Can Recidivism Be Prevented From Behind Bars? Evidence From a Behavioral Program " by William Arbour. Probable Causation Episode 102: William Arbour " Encouraging Desistance from Crime " by Jennifer Doleac. Want more? Check out my new book! The Science of Second Chances: A Revolution in Criminal Justice is available now. I have a Substack! Sign up for Probable Causation: The Newsletter .

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  Episode #166

  Episode 123: Ezra Golberstein on school-based mental health services

  Feb 10, 20261h 14m

  Ezra Golberstein talks about the impacts of school-based mental health services. " Effects of School-Based Mental Health Services on Youth Outcomes " by Ezra Golberstein, Irina Zainullina, Aaron Sojourner, and Mark A. Sander. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: " Investing in Children to Address the Child Mental Health Crisis " by Janet Currie. “ The FDA and ABCs: Unintended Consequences of Antidepressant Warnings on Human Capital " by Susan H. Busch, Ezra Golberstein, and Ellen Meara. “ The Rate of Return to the HighScope Perry Preschool Program " by James J. Heckman, Seong Hyeok Moon, Rodrigo Pinto, Peter A. Savelyev, and Adam Yavitz. Want more? Check out my new book! The Science of Second Chances: A Revolution in Criminal Justice comes out February 24th, and is available for pre-order now.

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