
Episode #109
Why Everything You Believe About Trade Deficits Is Wrong With Michael Klein
Ask a room of economists almost any policy question and you get an argument. Ask whether broad based tariffs benefit a country and you get something rarer: near unanimity, left leaning and right leaning alike. Michael Klein has spent a decade building the site that puts findings like that in front of people who do not read journal articles, and in this conversation he walks through what the evidence actually says. On this episode of The Real Finds Podcast, Gordon Lamphere sits down with Professor Michael W. Klein, the William L. Clayton Professor of International Economic Affairs at The Fletcher School at Tufts University, former Chief Economist in the Office of International Affairs at the U.S. Treasury, and founder of EconoFact. Exchange rates, trade deficits, dollar dominance, Fed independence, affordability, and what all of it means for commercial real estate. What we cover: Why Milton Friedman called the exchange rate the most important price in an economy The iPhone counted as a $300 import from China while China added $5 of value Why a bilateral trade deficit resembles your relationship with your grocery store The student loan versus the Ferrari: when borrowing is a problem and when it is not Rare earths, semiconductors, and aluminum, where security concerns are legitimate One steel producing job, 80 steel using jobs, and the arithmetic of a tariff Whether dollar dominance is eroding, and why the Treasury market matters more Fed independence and what Kevin Warsh's first FOMC meeting signaled Housing supply, zoning, and why Western drought is about to hit food prices Why Klein thinks office to residential conversion mostly does not work Private credit as the opacity risk nobody has fully priced New episodes drop every Wednesday at 3 PM CT on YouTube and Spotify. Subscribe so you never miss a conversation. Learn more at vvco.com, email info@vvco.com , or call 847-846-6902. The Real Finds Podcast is hosted by Gordon Lamphere, J.D., a fourth-generation commercial real estate broker and Vice President of Sales and Leasing at Van Vlissingen and Co., Chicagoland's oldest private commercial real estate firm, founded in 1879. Recognized by independent industry publications among the region's top brokers, Gordon and his team close 100+ transactions annually across industrial, office, retail, medical office, land, and investment properties in Greater Chicagoland and Southeastern Wisconsin. Learn more at vvco.com or call 847-846-6902. Connect with Michael Klein: Website: https://econofact.org Podcast: EconoFact Chats, https://econofact.org/podcast Faculty page: https://fletcher.tufts.edu/people/faculty/michael-klein LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/michael-klein-59794310/ Email: contact@econofact.org Timestamps: 00:00 Introducing Professor Michael Klein00:58 A tannery, a Shakespeare class, and comparative advantage02:29 Why EconoFact exists05:24 The most important price in an economy07:42 What exchange rates mean for builders and investors10:23 Strong dollar or weak dollar12:10 Churning: hiring and firing at the same time13:56 The biggest misconception about trade deficits18:44 Aluminum, semiconductors, and rare earths21:45 Why tariffs did not move the trade deficit26:16 Are tariffs ever good policy28:32 Is dollar dominance actually at risk32:44 Federal Reserve independence and why it exists38:49 Affordability, inflation, and housing supply42:33 Real Finds Final Four43:31 What CRE is not talking about enough45:51 Ten years out and the limits of forecasting49:20 One minute of career advice50:18 Who should be our next guest51:46 How to reach Michael Klein52:46 Close #CommercialRealEstate #Economics #Tariffs #TradeDeficit #ExchangeRates #FederalReserve #Inflation #Housing #EconoFact #CRE #RealEstatePodcast #Chicagoland #VanVlissingen #TheRealFindsPodcast






