Risk and Return with Charlie Gasparino and Bob Sloan

Charlie Gasparino and S3 Partners Founder Bob Sloan break down the biggest business headlines and actionable insights that give listeners an inside edge on the markets.

Risk and Return with Charlie Gasparino and Bob Sloan is a business podcast hosted by S3 Partners, with 64 episodes on record and a Required Pod Score of 80. PitchCentric scores this show on Booking Probability, Listen Score, and live audience signals refreshed every 24 hours.

S3 Partners hosts Risk and Return with Charlie Gasparino and Bob Sloan, a business show with 64 episodes published.

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  Risk and Return with Charlie Gasparino and Bob Sloan

  An MLB Lockout Bet, $40T in Debt & the Paramount Endgame

  Aug 20, 202644 min

  The U.S. national debt crossed $40 trillion — the alert literally hit mid-recording. So why aren't markets panicking? Bob Sloan breaks down the basis trade quietly keeping the debt machine running, the symbiosis between Wall Street and the Treasury, and the thing to watch as September funding pressure builds: banks starting to tell hedge fund clients "no." Plus: the arbs are back in the Paramount–Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) deal as the $7M-a-day ticking fee looms, short sellers are positioning for an MLB lockout through the only publicly traded team in baseball (BATRA), and shipping stocks have become a live proxy for how long the Iran conflict drags on. Chapters: 0:00 Opening 2:20 Paramount–Warner Bros.: the arbs are back 9:33 Media consolidation & the future of CNN and CBS 13:59 $40 trillion in debt — why isn't the market panicking 18:54 The basis trade funding the deficit 22:09 Funding pressure: what banks are telling clients 24:25 Teamsters vs. Amazon 28:45 Braves short interest & the MLB lockout bet 30:36 Sports valuations & the gambling bid 31:31 Shipping stocks: a proxy for the Iran war 36:47 The Trump crypto debate 41:41 Closing Risk & Return returns after Labor Day for Year 2! Hosted by Bob Sloan, founder & managing partner of S3 Partners, and Charlie Gasparino of Fox Business and the New York Post. Follow: Bob Sloan: https://x.com/BobSloanS3 Charlie Gasparino: https://x.com/CGasparino S3 Partners: https://x.com/S3Partners Nothing in this episode should be considered investment advice. The hosts are not investment advisors.

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  Risk and Return with Charlie Gasparino and Bob Sloan

  SpaceX's Big Unwind and Paramount's Threat to Leave New York

  Aug 13, 202635 min

  Charlie Gasparino of Fox News and NY Post and S3's founder and managing partner Bob Sloan on the leverage fight behind the $110B Warner Bros. Discovery deal — and the short unwind in the biggest IPO on record. Bob reveals SpaceX shorts have covered hard since the August 6 unlock — 40 million shares in two days, roughly a fifth of the position — after S3 called the print at 210M shares against an actual 206M. Bob breaks down potential boxed positions, why the average short is still in the money, and the 2 billion shares of unlock stacked up between now and November. PLUS Charlie's Post reporting: David Ellison is weighing moving CBS News out of New York, with Atlanta in the mix, as Rob Bonta and Letitia James lead a state AG coalition trying to block the Warner deal. With a per-day ticking fee running against him and the AGs pushing trial to March, Charlie explains why people close to Paramount think the exit threat is the strongest card they've got — and what a combined CBS-CNN newsroom would actually mean. Then Bob takes it to the data. Plus two bullish short-interest setups into earnings and why space keeps pulling in retail capital the way nothing else does. 00:00 — Bob on CNBC, and why positioning drives direction 06:00 — Paramount, Ellison, and the threat to move CBS out of New York 09:22 — What CBS and CNN under one roof would do to the news business 10:44 — Why the AGs' antitrust case doesn't hold up 14:15 — Earnings setup: Cisco15:20 — Earnings setup: Dillard's 16:37 — SpaceX: the short covering after the unlock 18:41 — S3 called 210M shares. The print was 206M. 19:07 — 2 billion shares of unlock between now and November 20:16 — Starlink, launch, rare earths: the case for a $10T SpaceX 23:06 — Why space resonates — pure risk, pure America 25:10 — AOC, Mamdani, and the New York business climate 28:27 — Will anyone actually leave? Griffin, Ross, and empty threats For more information on the data featured in the episode visit S3Partners.com Nothing in this program is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. This program is offered for entertainment and information purposes only.

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  Risk and Return with Charlie Gasparino and Bob Sloan

  SpaceX Beat the Quarter. Shorts Await the Unlock.

  Aug 6, 202651 min

  SpaceX broke to new lows this week and the shorts aren't going anywhere before Thursday's pre-IPO lockup expiry. S3's data told the story before the tape did: the highest short interest as a percentage of float in the Magnificent 8, and roughly $9 billion in short-seller profits — S3 numbers Elon Musk responded to on X.com! Charlie Gasparino and S3 Partners founder & CEO Bob Sloan break down the week's biggest market stories using S3's proprietary positioning data — showing where institutional investors are actually leaning. This week: Situational Awareness dropped 67% in a month after a massive two-year run — and the fund's letter pointed at short sellers. S3's data shows short interest across the long book was flat to falling, with convert hedging — not directional bets — doing representing a significant amount of the short book. Plus: the details lock-up overhang hanging over SpaceX, shipping shorts signal no peace priced into Hormuz or the Red Sea, and New York's gambling suit against Kalshi. For more information about the data featured in the episode visit S3Partners.com 00:00 — S3's banner week: the SpaceX data heard around the Street — and Bob's NY Post op-ed on New York vs. Cleveland 03:20 — SpaceX (SPCX): new lows, shorts in control — the Mag 8's highest short % of float and ~$9B in short profits 08:45 — Situational Awareness: down 67% in a month — did short sellers really take the fund out? The data says no 14:57 — Margin calls, price discovery, and Ken Griffin's cleanup crew. 17:55 — El-Sayed's one-point Michigan shock: Fetterman watch, Van Jones' "Blockbuster vs. Netflix," and why the prediction markets overshot 23:50 — Silicon Valley vs. Wall Street: the story behind the Situational Awareness blowup 26:06 — New York sues Kalshi: bucket shops, court precedent, and 150 years of the gambling-vs.-speculation fight 32:42 — SpaceX's $18B CapEx that spooked the market 35:09 — In dollar terms, SpaceX short interest now tops Tesla — inside the short-seller mindset 36:53 — The geopolitical tell: betting on peace means shorting shipping — and nobody is 38:08 — Trump's war dilemma: the JD Vance faction, the generals, and the midterm clock 41:57 — The risk the market isn't pricing: political violence — Weimar parallels, the horseshoe, and the "normies" 49:16 — Closing thoughts: Charlie's message to New York's business leaders

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  Risk and Return with Charlie Gasparino and Bob Sloan

  The $24 Billion Bet Against SpaceX, South Korea Wipeout & U.S. Sector Positioning Map

  Jul 30, 202652 min

  The Fed held rates steady — and markets resumed the sell-off. The warning was already in the positioning data: Korea's single-stock ETF blowup and a crossing Korea–Hong Kong spread foreshadowed the move before it reached U.S. shores. Charlie Gasparino and S3 Partners founder & CEO Bob Sloan break down the week's biggest market stories using S3's proprietary positioning and short-interest data — showing where institutional investors are actually leaning, before the headlines catch up. This week: SpaceX short interest climbs to roughly $24 billion — larger than Tesla's in dollar terms — with a lock-up bigger than the entire public float arriving days after Q2 earnings. Plus: shorts doubled their Fair Isaac (FICO) position before the post-earnings slide, Treasury ETF shorts are nowhere to be found despite the rate scare, and this week's S3 earnings model setups. For more information about the data behind the charts visit S3Partners.com 00:00 — Fed holds, markets sell off: the yield curve, the oil shock, and AI CapEx 08:35 — Warsh's balancing act; NYC's second-home tax list, munis and "jump risk" 17:35 — Anthony Fauci testimony and political fallout 25:10 — Paramount–Warner Bros. merger and the antitrust fight 28:30 — S3 Earnings Positioning Model Forecasts 30:35 — AI positioning: short interest +90% YoY, hedge funds still underweight 32:15 — Sector map: tech's wide long/short gap vs. healthcare's crowded long 35:50 — SpaceX (SPCX): $24B short — now bigger than Tesla's 42:55 — Fair Isaac (FICO): shorts doubled ahead of the drop 47:05 — South Korea's single-stock ETF blowup — and what it foreshadowed 50:30 — Closing thoughts

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  Risk and Return with Charlie Gasparino and Bob Sloan

  Microsoft's Ten-Year-High Short Interest and the Positioning Break in AI

  Jul 23, 202649 min

  Microsoft is down 19% on the year while Alphabet is up 11% and Amazon is up 7% — big CapEx bets, different outcomes. Bob Sloan takes Charlie Gasparino through what S3's data shows underneath it: short interest up 68% to a ten-year high, and active hedge fund longs heading for the exits at the same time. Both sides of hedge fund positioning, one direction: Sell Microsoft. Bob explains why. In the neo-clouds, Bob explains why a 50-60% jump in short interest overstates the bearishness — much of the sector's financing runs through convertible debt, and convert arb desks short the stock to hedge it. However, as prices fell, some of that hedge came off, leaving a larger share of the book directional. Plus memory, where US shorts have covered but Taiwanese conviction hasn't budged, and the Hong Kong–Korea spread narrowing after weeks on the S3 radar. Away from the data desk: Charlie on why 12 state AGs are suing to block Paramount Skydance–Warner Bros. Discovery hours after the EU approved it, the $7 million-a-day ticking fee, New York City muni yields popping two weeks running under Mayor Mamdani, and what a senior JPMorgan executive told him about the Wall Street Journal's story on IRS chief Frank Bisignano. Risk & Return with Charlie Gasparino and Bob Sloan. Data drives news. News drives markets. For more information about the positioning data featured in the episode visit www.S3Partners.com 00:00 — Intro 02:17 — Paramount Skydance–Warner Bros. Discovery: 12 AGs, one EU approval 04:54 — The TRO, the preliminary injunction, and the $7M/day ticking fee 10:07 — New York City munis: yields popping under Mamdani 13:06 — Capital flight happens gradually, then suddenly 19:08 — No shorts left in the bond ETFs — the air pocket setup 21:26 — The Wall Street Journal, Frank Bisignano, and what JPMorgan actually found 31:26 — S3 picks: Roper (ROP) bullish, Nasdaq (NDAQ) bearish 32:38 — Microsoft down 19%: the OpenAI exposure problem 37:05 — Neo-cloud shorts: hedge unwind vs. directional conviction 38:02 — Memory: US shorts cover, Taiwan holds 39:18 — Hong Kong–South Korea: the spread narrows 41:22 — Space, the IPO break, and never catching the bottom

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