Rubber Meets The Road Economics: Exploring the forces shaping our economy

Welcome to ’Rubber Meets The Road Economics,’ where investor Hunter Craig and Professor Edwin T. Burton from the University of Virginia explore the forces shaping our economy. Each episode breaks down complex economic concepts into clear, relatable insights. From globalization and technology to behavioral economics and policy impacts, we cover the topics that influence your daily life. Whether you’re an enthusiast or just curious, join us for engaging discussions that deepen your understanding of economics. Subscribe now and follow us for updates.

Rubber Meets The Road Economics: Exploring the forces shaping our economy is a business podcast hosted by Hunter Craig, with 32 episodes on record and a Required Pod Score of 80. PitchCentric scores this show on Booking Probability, Listen Score, and live audience signals refreshed every 24 hours.

Hunter Craig hosts Rubber Meets The Road Economics: Exploring the forces shaping our economy, a business show with 32 episodes published.

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  Episode #31

  Inflation Is Coming: Ed Burton & Mark Loehr on the Fed's July 30th Inflection Point

  Aug 8, 202641 min

  We're re-sharing a conversation recorded the day after the July 30th Fed meeting, between Mark Loehr, CEO of Open Exchange, and Professor Ed Burton — Mark's Econ 101 professor turned friend of 45+ years. Two people who go deep fast. The thesis: for the first time in recent memory, the Fed set its rate below where the market wanted it. To defend that rate, Burton argues, the Fed now has to print its way out — and money supply is the inflation story almost no one is telling. Burton and Loehr think July 30th was a genuine inflection point, and they wanted to document why the day after it happened. What they get into: Who really sets interest rates — the Fed or the market? Why Burton has watched money supply since 2020, when almost no one else was calling for inflation The two principles that explain most of this: supply and demand for money, and no-arbitrage The repo market — the largest securities market in the world, and the one that actually matters Why the money supply grew 3% in 13 weeks (roughly 13% annualized) while the rest of the economy grew a third of a percent What 20% money-supply growth in 2026 could do to inflation and long rates The one thing that could turn it all around: a slowdown in hyperscaler capital spending A short history of the Fed — from Andrew Jackson to JP Morgan to 2008 — and what it was actually created to do Plus: how Burton and his UVA students actually use AI Chapters: (00:00) Why we're re-sharing this one (01:08) Intro: 45 years of Mark & Ed, and documenting the inflection points of life (03:11) The Fed vs. the market — who sets rates? (04:57) 2020: the article Burton thought was uncontroversial (10:20) Volcker, and breaking the back of 1970s inflation (11:00) The arbitrage principle — and the mortgage example (14:55) Inside the repo market (19:00) Money supply grew 3% in 13 weeks — what that means (22:07) How the monetarists fell out of favor (24:46) COVID inflation: no angels, both administrations (26:12) A short history of the Federal Reserve (30:15) How the market read July 30th (32:34) The wildcard: hyperscaler capital spending (33:44) How Burton and his students really use AI (39:59) Closing: documenting a friendship Guests: Mark Loehr is CEO of Open Exchange. He went to Wall Street on Burton's advice, learning options theory just as the Cboe was being developed in 1975. Professor Ed Burton has taught economics for 58 years, at Cornell and the University of Virginia, and has likely taught more undergraduates than any economist in history. This fall he teaches the largest 400-level finance course at UVA. This episode documents the personal views of the speakers and is for informational purposes only. It is not investment advice.

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  Rubber Meets The Road Economics: Exploring the forces shaping our economy

  30. Rates Up, Inflation Back, and Who’s Really Running the Fed

  May 1, 202620 min

  Six months ago, the Fed dot plot was pointing toward rate cuts. The consensus on Wall Street, in academia, and in financial media was convergent: relief was coming for borrowers. Professor Edwin Burton saw it differently. In this episode of Rubber Meets the Road Economics, Burton — one of the University of Virginia's most respected financial economists — returns to explain why that consensus has now fully reversed, and what it signals for the months ahead. The Fed held its target this week at 3.5–3.75%. But the real story isn't what the Fed did. It's what the market is doing — and why Burton believes the pressure is decisively upward on rates. The conversation covers: Why money supply growth jumping from ~3–4% to 7% annually in just three months is the real inflation indicator nobody's watching Burton's revised inflation forecast: from 2.5% to approximately 4% by year-end How the Iran War's closure of the Strait of Hormuz is affecting Brent crude (briefly $128/barrel) — and why America is relatively insulated while Europe and Asia aren't The American household budget crisis hiding in plain sight: $10,000/year in property taxes, $20–25,000/year in healthcare, on a median Virginia income of $80,000 Why Jamie Dimon's bond crisis warning deserves a serious hearing — and why the nation's liquidity problem matters more than its asset base The Spirit Airlines bailout debate: why bankruptcy is the right tool, and why the government should get out of the way The single most clarifying argument in this episode — that interest rates are set by supply and demand in the $14 trillion daily repo market, not by whoever carries a briefcase into the Eccles Building Why Kevin Warsh's simultaneous goals of lower rates and a smaller Fed balance sheet are "two incompatible views" — and why he'll find that out fast This episode is essential listening for investors recalibrating bond exposure, economists tracking monetary transmission, and anyone trying to understand why economic aggregates look reasonable while family budgets feel impossible.

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  Episode #30

  30. Rates Up, Inflation Back, and Who’s Really Running the Fed

  May 1, 202620 minS0

  <p>Six months ago, the Fed dot plot was pointing toward rate cuts. The consensus on Wall Street, in academia, and in financial media was convergent: relief was coming for borrowers. Professor Edwin Burton saw it differently.</p> <p> </p> <p>In this episode of Rubber Meets the Road Economics, Burton — one of the University of Virginia's most respected financial economists — returns to explain why that consensus has now fully reversed, and what it signals for the months ahead. The Fed held its target this week at 3.5–3.75%. But the real story isn't what the Fed did. It's what the market is doin...

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  Episode #29

  29. Is the U.S. Economy Heading for a Slowdown? Iran War and Rising Oil Prices, AI Capex Bubble, Federal Reserve Trap, and Private Credit Run Risk | Edwin Burton

  Mar 18, 202623 minS0

  <p>Investor Hunter Craig sits down with Professor Edwin T. Burton of the University of Virginia on Fed meeting day — March 17, 2026. The Federal Reserve is expected to hold rates steady, and Professor Burton explains why there is no path to lower rates without triggering inflation. From there, the conversation ranges across the Iran war’s muted effect on oil markets, a dangerously weakening U.S. economy, and the deep structural vulnerabilities in both public equities and private credit.</p> <p>The episode’s sharpest analysis targets the Magnificent Seven: Professor Burton argues that most of the AI capital expenditure being capita...

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  Rubber Meets The Road Economics: Exploring the forces shaping our economy

  29. Is the U.S. Economy Heading for a Slowdown? Iran War and Rising Oil Prices, AI Capex Bubble, Federal Reserve Trap, and Private Credit Run Risk | Edwin Burton

  Mar 18, 202623 min

  Investor Hunter Craig sits down with Professor Edwin T. Burton of the University of Virginia on Fed meeting day — March 17, 2026. The Federal Reserve is expected to hold rates steady, and Professor Burton explains why there is no path to lower rates without triggering inflation. From there, the conversation ranges across the Iran war’s muted effect on oil markets, a dangerously weakening U.S. economy, and the deep structural vulnerabilities in both public equities and private credit. The episode’s sharpest analysis targets the Magnificent Seven: Professor Burton argues that most of the AI capital expenditure being capitalized on balance sheets should actually be expensed as a cost of doing business — which would reveal that earnings for the S&P’s biggest names are flat or falling. He closes with a warning about private credit run risk, the structural problem facing firms like Blue Owl and Blackstone, and why retail investors in private credit funds may not understand what they actually own. DISCLAIMER The content of this podcast is for informational and educational purposes only. Nothing discussed in this episode constitutes financial, investment, legal, or tax advice. The views and opinions expressed are those of the host and guest and do not represent the positions of the University of Virginia or any other institution. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Listeners should consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Statistical figures cited during the episode reflect the guest’s characterizations at the time of recording and may differ from independently verified data; see the market data table in these show notes for fact-checked figures. Key Market Data (as of March 17, 2026) Indicator Value 2-Month U.S. Treasury Yield 3.69% 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield 4.20% Fed Funds Target Rate 3.50– 3.75% Mortgage Rates (30-yr est.) ~6.30– 6.40% Brent Crude Oil ~$102/bbl (briefly $120) Q4 2025 GDP (annualized) 0.7% (revised down) S&P 500 Change Since Iran War Began (approx.) -1 to -2% OpenAI Projected Loss (2026) ~$14 billion (note: Prof. Burton cited $80B in episode; verified figure is ~$14B for 2026) Timestamped Topic Guide Timestamp Topic 00:00 Intro — Hunter and Professor Burton set the stage on Fed meeting day 00:45 Fed Prediction: rates hold; no cut possible; Walsh confirmation and what it means 02:00 Mortgage rates at 6.30–6.40%; debt market saturated at every level 02:45 Iran war and oil: why $120/bbl Brent matters less than it once did 04:00 Oil as an economic tax, not an inflation driver; U.S. now a service economy 04:45 Q4 GDP revised to 0.7%; employment weakening; recession risk rising 05:30 Stock market’s puzzling calm: barely -1 to -2% since Iran war began 06:00 Magnificent Seven and the AI capex accounting problem 07:30 Should AI data center spend be expensed, not capitalized? Burton says yes. 08:00 Meta: full-year 2025 capex ($72B) exceeded net income ($60B); cash flow under pressure 08:30 The AI moat problem: 47 free competitors; OpenAI’s mounting losses and cash burn 10:00 Why rates won’t fall: deficits, debt auctions, political gridlock 11:00 Deficits grow in recession; neither party has a credible spending plan 12:30 Can the U.S. afford the Iran war? Political coalition fracturing 13:30 Fed’s real power: printing money vs. market forces; inflation risk of cutting 15:00 Private credit: the retail investor misunderstanding and run risk 16:30 Blue Owl and Blackstone: why headlines matter more than contract terms 19:00 Private equity continuation funds; software company hangover 20:30 University endowments: Princeton at 4%/yr while markets return 20% 21:30 Bearish wrap-up: economy, stocks, politics all pointing down 22:00 Professor Burton’s self-aware caveat: “I do have a tendency to be bearish”

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