Episode #76
Changes to the Safeguard Mechanism - Tim Buckley -Ep76
Highlights β Minister Bowen's BYONCE for Data Centres The federal government and Energy Minister Chris Bowen have committed that data centre development approvals will be contingent on BYONCE β Bring Your Own New Clean Energy. The signs are promising βThe Energy reports a consultation paper has been released by the federal government that confirmed that the Clean Energy Regulator would use the Renewable Energy Guarantee of Origin (REGO) scheme to ensure that data centres contract for renewable energy that is genuinely additional to existing sources and aligned with BYONCE. Highlights β China Generation 8MCY2026 China's total power generation growth slowed to 0.9% yoy in August 2026, while zero-emissions generation grew 8.8% yoy, more than offsetting demand growth and driving a second consecutive monthly decline in fossil fuel generation. Coal generation fell by 4.3% yoy. Solar remained the #2 generation source at 13.1% YTD, ahead of wind at 10.8%, while zero-emissions sources supplied 42.3% of total generation. 8 months into 2026, China's national emissions continue to plateau, six years ahead of 2030. Lowlights β BHP's FY2026 Annual Report confirms their shameful climate walkback In May, Angus Grigg & Maryanne at ABC 4Corners and The Guardian's Christopher Knaus and Adam Morton gave us the big reveal β BHP was locking in diesel fossil fuel use in its Pilbara operations and effectively reversing its commitments on emissions reduction while telling the public it was going green. This highlighted the shameful climate science denialism of the BHP board under Chair Ross McEwan and new CEO Brandon Craig. Four months later, last week we got the big middle finger with confirmation that BHP's emissions in 2035 will be a reported 33% higher than previously expected. The board had listened to its shareholders and the climate scientists and decided to totally ignore them. CEF continues to lobby the government to turn the $3bn annual subsidy to imported diesel for the mining sector into a TTI, a tailwind to energy security and decarbonisation. Lowlights β Sanjeev Gupta is taking the piss, still Reading veteran ABC journalist Paul Barry's insightful book "The Big Steal" reveals the massive ongoing global fraud being perpetrated by international master scammer, who literally bled Whyalla Steelworks dry. I continue to highlight this because Gupta somehow still controls InfraBuild, a firm employing 4,500 Australians and is in all likelihood according to Barry's book trading while insolvent for potentially a decade, yet ASIC is dead silent on this. ASIC asleep at the wheel, again. Main Story β CEF's Safeguard Mechanism Submission Matt Pollard led on CEF's submission to the DCCEEW consultation on the 2026 Safeguard Mechanism Review β an review required to strengthen the Federal Government's flagship policy for driving emissions reduction and fossil fuel abatement across industry. CEF's submission is grounded in enhancing the existing policy framework and improving the effectiveness of the integrated structure of the Safeguard Mechanism, the ACCU Scheme, and the Nature Repair Market. This is key to building investor confidence in deploying capital into on-site abatement for industrial facilities under the Safeguard, and patient capital into nature-based solutions that deliver critical co-benefits in nature repair. CEF sees it as imperative that industry, regulators, investors, landholders and the academic community focus on enhancing the standard and integrity of this structure, and not on abandoning this model. Markets work best with a price signal, and 'polluter pays' is a longstanding core market principle Australia needs to enhance, not discard. Australia has an incredible opportunity to harness the scalability of compliance carbon markets to build a world-scale structure to sustainably generate significant positive outcomes that restore, conserve, and protect Australia's natural capital, and simultaneously create the critical investment signal of a rising price on carbon, supported by fundamentals that will drive such market conditions, catalysing large-scale capital deployment into on-site abatement in industry. Australia's opportunity, and challenge, is in forming market conditions, improving investor confidence and market participation, and ensuring system integrity and stakeholder buy-in. This is key to ensuring the integration of the ACCU Scheme with the Safeguard Mechanism to incentivise high-quality abatement and investment into nature-based solutions while simultaneously not limiting or hindering onsite emissions reductions at industrial facilities. CEF's submission was focussed upon broadening and deepening the policy settings of the Safeguard Mechanism, recommending: Establishing a progressively rising real price floor in the Safeguard Mechanism through purchasing option or reverse auction structures in the ACCU market to increase demand when secondary market prices fall below a rising floor. The Federal Government introduce a significantly greater carbon price liability for entities that exceed their Safeguard baselines by >30% through the purchasing of credits from the Government at a significant market premium over the purchase price paid through price floor auctions. The Federal Government introduce an Australian CBAM for product variables currently most associated with trade-exposed, baseline adjustment (TEBA) concessions to level the playing field for trade-exposed commodities without hindering the decarbonisation of industry and limiting new, low-emissions manufacturing and value-adding capacity to compete in the domestic market with emissions-intensive counterparts. The Safeguard Mechanism be expanded more effectively to the electricity sector to accelerate the phase out of fossil fuel-based generation and support the deployment of critical renewable energy generation, ideally aligned to ensure coal plant closure timetable certainty. The Safeguard Mechanism floor be lowered to 75,000tpa as an efficient next step extension. The Federal Government investigate the potential introduction of Carbon Contracts-for-Difference (CCfD) to accelerate investment into decarbonisation capex for captured facilities β where the current cost of compliance for Safeguard is met from ACCUs and SMCs as the lowest-cost abatement method. Our recommendations are centred upon absorbing lessons from international best practice and the development of carbon pricing mechanisms across the world, and in particular, our key trading partners in Northeast Asia. Link to CEF submission What's coming up? 13-14 October 2026 Annual Industrial Net Zero Summit in Sydney 25-29th October 2026 Bunbury in SW WA I'll be speaking at the Innovative Industries of the Future 2026 Regional Conference

