Episode #24
Trend Followers, Not Trend Predictors: A Better Way to Manage Client Money with David Keller
Most advisors were trained to sell a story. Find a great company, build a thesis, talk a client into the position, then hope the market agrees. The problem shows up when the stock goes down anyway and nobody can explain why. In this episode of The Advisor's Fuel, Adam Koos sits down with David Keller, CMT, founder of Sierra Alpha Research and host of the Market Misbehavior podcast, who spent nearly a decade running the technical research department and the legendary chart room at Fidelity. David breaks down what technical analysis actually is once you strip away the voodoo label, why price carries information the same way earnings do, and how a consistent routine protects advisors from the behavioral biases quietly wrecking their decisions. He and Adam get into relative strength, risk management, the biases that trip up clients and advisors alike, and the mindset that separates good investors from great ones. Whether you already run technical models, you are curious about adding them, or you just want a cleaner process for managing risk and client fear, this one is worth your time. Episode Timestamps 00:00 – Why price has information, just like earnings 01:00 – Meet David Keller and Sierra Alpha Research 02:00 – From music and psychology to Bloomberg and technical analysis 05:00 – Nine years at Fidelity and the chart room 13:00 – The chairman's hotline: David's favorite Fidelity story 18:00 – Technical analysis in plain terms, minus the voodoo 23:00 – The quotes: Fama, Buffett, and Templeton on behavior 28:00 – Confirmation bias, endowment effect, and changes of character 32:00 – What clients actually want when markets go sideways 35:00 – Price is fact: stop guessing what markets should do 39:00 – Risk management first and the tornado siren analogy 40:00 – What separates average investors from great ones 43:00 – The three charts David returns to again and again 47:00 – Mindset for the next generation of advisors Key Takeaways Technical analysis is not a crystal ball. It is a way to read what the market is doing right now instead of guessing what it should do next. Markets trend because human behavior drives them, and relative strength helps you find what is actually working instead of what you hope will work. Advisors carry a double load of behavioral biases, their clients' and their own. A consistent routine is how you keep emotion out of the process. Being wrong is part of the job. Staying wrong when the evidence has changed is the real mistake. Bull markets are the time to build good routines, because bear markets are when they actually matter. The best investors are the most self-aware, and they ask better questions than everyone else in the room. Key Quotes "As technical analysts, what we're doing is recognizing that price has information just like earnings do." "A consistent but imperfect process is way better than an inconsistent, perfect process." "The most successful investors aren't necessarily the smartest ones, they're the most aware." Connect With the Guest David Keller, CMT – Sierra Alpha Research Website: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/ YouTube: @dkellercmt Follow Adrenaline Advisor Facebook: https://facebook.com/adrenalineadvisorconsulting Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/adrenaline.advisor Threads: https://www.threads.com/@adrenaline.advisor LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/adrenaline-advisor-consulting/ TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@adrenalineadvisor YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@AdrenalineAdvisor Email: info@adrenalineadvisor.com Website: www.adrenalineadvisor.com Connect with Adam Koos, CFP, CMT, CFTe, CEPA LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/adamkoos Website: https://www.adrenalineadvisor.com
