The American Conservative Morning Briefing

A short morning synopsis of TAC's coverage

The American Conservative Morning Briefing is a news podcast hosted by The American Conservative, with 142 episodes on record and a Required Pod Score of 80.

The American Conservative hosts The American Conservative Morning Briefing, a news show with 142 episodes published.

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  The American Conservative Morning Briefing

  October 03, 2026

  Oct 3, 20264 min

  Good morning! Today is Saturday, October 3rd 2026, and this is The American Conservative's Morning Brief. Russia experts tell The American Conservative that Moscow views Western talk of blockading Kaliningrad as grounds for an act-of-war response, with Putin prepared to defend the exclave by nuclear means if necessary. The U.S. is surging a third aircraft carrier and ten thousand more troops to the Middle East as tensions with Iran escalate, even as Tehran floats inspections of its bombed nuclear sites in exchange for sanctions relief. September's jobs report came in at just twenty-nine thousand new hires against a ninety thousand forecast, with wage growth slowing to its weakest pace since May 2021. and now for the details. We begin in the Baltic, where Moscow is warning NATO of a possible nuclear response if the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad is cut off. Kaliningrad is a small sliver of Russian territory wedged between Poland, Lithuania, and the sea, and it has become the latest flashpoint between Russia and the West. Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski has suggested NATO could hold aggressive exercises around Kaliningrad to pressure Moscow into pulling troops out of Ukraine, and some Western voices have floated the idea of a blockade. As Andrew Day reports for The American Conservative, Russia experts across the spectrum say the Kremlin takes these ideas with deadly seriousness. Thomas Graham of the Council on Foreign Relations told TAC that Putin would see a blockade as an act of war, and would defend Russian land with all necessary means, including nuclear weapons. Anatol Lieven of the Quincy Institute added that Kaliningrad is internationally recognized Russian territory, now surrounded by NATO members on land and sea, and that every Russian he has spoken with says Moscow would have to credibly threaten, and if necessary use, nuclear weapons rather than accept its surrender. Day argues that dismissing these warnings as mere bluffing, as some Western analysts have done, is a dangerous miscalculation at a moment when mutual understanding between Russia and the West is arguably worse than during the Cold War. Turning to the Persian Gulf, the United States is sending a third aircraft carrier and roughly ten thousand additional troops to the Middle East, joining the two carriers and fifty thousand servicemembers already deployed against Iran. As Jude Russo reports for The American Conservative, the Wall Street Journal says the USS Theodore Roosevelt left San Diego for the Gulf on Sunday, followed by the Makin Island Amphibious Ready Group on Monday. Two Patriot missile batteries have also been moved into the region in recent weeks, one to Saudi Arabia and one to Qatar, to shield energy infrastructure in the event of renewed hostilities. President Trump's recent public comments suggest he expects a return to combat soon. The diplomatic channel is not entirely closed, however. Bloomberg reports that Tehran has offered to allow inspectors into its bombed nuclear sites in exchange for sanctions relief. The pressures of the standoff are showing up at the pump. Brent crude opened Friday at a hundred and two dollars a barrel, with the national average for regular gas at four dollars and forty cents, and diesel at six dollars and thirty-seven cents a gallon. Here at home, the September jobs report came in well below expectations. The Department of Labor reported Friday that the economy added just twenty-nine thousand jobs last month, far short of the ninety thousand economists had projected. Unemployment ticked up slightly from four-point-one to four-point-two percent, and annual wage growth slowed to three percent, the weakest pace since May of 2021. As Jude Russo reports for The American Conservative, stocks rose and bond yields fell on the news, as analysts downgraded the odds of an interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve later this month. Employment and equity markets have held up through 2026 despite weak consumer sentiment and tightening credit, but the softer wage numbers point to real strain for working families trying to keep pace with the cost of living. Those are today's highlights. For the full stories and more, visit theamericanconservative.com. Thank you for starting your morning with us.

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  The American Conservative Morning Briefing

  October 02, 2026

  Oct 2, 20265 min

  Good morning! Today is Friday, October 2nd 2026, and this is The American Conservative's Morning Brief. Ethiopia has slid back into open civil war as seven armed groups unite against Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, with Brad Pearce arguing the timing is disastrous for American interests in a Red Sea region where Washington has precious few friends left to lose. Jude Russo examines the tentative good news that oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz have returned to pre-war levels, weighing whether Iran has been degraded, is angling for a diplomatic breakthrough, or is simply waiting for an opportune moment to escalate. and now for the details. We begin this morning in the Horn of Africa, where Ethiopia appears to have slipped back into open civil war. On September 20th, seven armed groups announced they were banding together under the name the Ethiopian People's Forces Alliance for Survival, with the stated aim of removing Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed from power. Shortly thereafter, forces of the Tigrayan People's Liberation Front launched an offensive and reportedly seized three regional airports, prompting counterattacks from the Ethiopian National Defense Force. By September 24th, a member of the TPLF's central committee was describing the situation to Al Jazeera as a "full war." The governor of the Afar regional state has further alleged that Eritrean troops have invaded and now control two-thirds of that state, though that claim remains unconfirmed. As Brad Pearce reports, the timing could hardly be worse for American interests. The Trump administration signed a new defense agreement with Addis Ababa just last month, and Washington lifted sanctions on Eritrea the day before the Alliance for Survival was announced. Pearce describes Abiy as an unusual figure — a Nobel laureate who styled himself after Silicon Valley CEOs, promised freedom, and delivered surveillance and high-tech warfare, with a habit of making flashy handshake deals without working out the fundamentals. The 2022 Pretoria Agreement, Pearce notes, never settled the status of Eritrean troops in Tigray, never restored self-government to the region, and never allowed it to participate in the June elections that extended Abiy's rule. Pearce argues that Ethiopia nonetheless matters to the United States. It is Africa's second-most populous country, a potentially lucrative trade partner, and — crucially — offers air range over Red Sea shipping lanes at a moment when Yemen's Houthis have the upper hand, Somalia remains weak after decades of American support, and Sudan's civil war has made both sides untenable partners. The only serious alternative, Pearce suggests, would be recognizing Somaliland, something the Trump administration has thus far hesitated to do. Abiy, he writes, is one of the wiliest leaders of the modern era, and the American foreign policy class should hope he survives, because there are precious few friends left to lose near the Red Sea. Turning to the Persian Gulf, there is tentatively good news on energy flows. As of Monday, a seven-day average of 13.5 million barrels of crude oil were transiting the Strait of Hormuz — roughly matching pre-war levels after six months of severe disruption. Jude Russo examines why markets have not greeted the news with jubilation, and offers several explanations for why flows have improved. One possibility, he writes, is that American military operations have degraded Iranian capacities to the point that Tehran can no longer meaningfully constrict traffic, or is unwilling to invite further punishment. A second, compatible explanation is that Iran is maintaining calm in anticipation of a diplomatic breakthrough, with proposals exchanged around the UN General Assembly for a return to something like the June memorandum of understanding. A third possibility, which Russo attributes to analyst Trita Parsi, is darker — that the Iranians are simply waiting for an opportune moment to escalate, with hardliners like Mohsen Rezaei having gained prominence after the death of Ali Khamenei, and a belief in Tehran that the American midterms offer a chance to maximize the administration's embarrassment. Russo cautions that global reserves remain depleted, refinery and pipeline damage will persist for months, and consumer prices will stay elevated regardless. Spiking the football on the opening of Hormuz, he writes, seems at this point a little premature. Those are today's highlights. For the full stories and more, visit theamericanconservative.com. Thank you for starting your morning with us.

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  The American Conservative Morning Briefing

  October 01, 2026

  Oct 1, 20265 min

  Good morning! Today is Thursday, October 1st 2026, and this is The American Conservative's Morning Brief. Iuliia Mendel reports that war-weary Ukrainians are turning against the rhetoric of unbreakability, with a majority now backing a negotiated peace that includes territorial compromises as Russian strikes intensify and mobilization grows deeply unpopular. On day 215 of the Iran War, Tehran confirms receipt of an American counterproposal on the Strait of Hormuz through Qatari mediators, even as U.S. forces complete their withdrawal from Iraq and Israel investigates a FlyDubai cockpit attack as attempted terrorism. Consumer confidence has tumbled to its lowest level in twelve years, as surging gasoline prices from the Iran War feed inflation and darken the outlook for American households. and now for the details. We begin in Ukraine, where a growing debate is reshaping what victory even means after more than four years of war with Russia. Writing for The American Conservative, Iuliia Mendel reports that ordinary Ukrainians are increasingly skeptical of the official rhetoric of resilience and unbreakability, and are instead pressing for a negotiated end to the fighting. A poll by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology found that 61 percent of Ukrainians would support a comprehensive peace deal that included territorial compromises. Public anger over forced mobilization has reached a boiling point, with mobilization centers linked to torture, unexplained deaths, and corruption. Mendel notes that Russian strikes have intensified, now reaching deep into Kiev, following President Zelensky's much-advertised 40-day pressure operation, which has provoked heavy Russian counterstrikes on railways, agricultural exports, the power system, and basic goods warehouses. As Mendel reports, Ukraine is spending roughly 44 percent of GDP on defense, compared with about 7 percent for Russia, and Russia has between two and four times as many men of mobilization age. Her conclusion is sobering: attritional war favors Moscow historically, and the current course, marked by corruption, fiscal crisis, and a demoralized population, risks costing Ukraine not just the war, but its independence. A bad peace, she argues, is now the only victory worth believing in. Turning to the Iran War, now in its 215th day, there are signs of movement on the diplomatic front. Jude Russo reports for The American Conservative that an Iranian government spokeswoman, Fatemeh Mohajerani, said Foreign Minister Abbas Aragchi presented an American counterproposal for reopening the Strait of Hormuz at a cabinet meeting on Wednesday. The proposal was delivered through Qatari mediators, though its substance has not been disclosed. In a parallel development, the roughly 1,500 American servicemembers stationed in Iraq's Kurdish region completed their withdrawal on Wednesday. CENTCOM announced the departure from Erbil Air Base and the conclusion of Operation Inherent Resolve, the campaign launched in 2014 against the Islamic State. For the first time in years, there is no U.S. military presence in Iraq. Russo also notes a serious aviation incident: a FlyDubai flight bound for Tel Aviv made an emergency landing in Saudi Arabia after the copilot allegedly attacked the pilot and sent the plane into a steep descent. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the copilot appears to have intended to crash the plane deliberately. Israel is investigating the matter as a terrorist hijacking. Meanwhile, oil flows through Hormuz have returned to near pre-war levels, but prices remain elevated, with Brent crude opening at 103 dollars a barrel and the national average for regular gasoline at 4 dollars and 43 cents. Here at home, American households are feeling the strain. Andrew Day reports for The American Conservative that consumer confidence fell sharply in September, hitting its lowest level in twelve years. The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index dropped 6.7 points to 81.9, a level not seen since 2014, when the economy was still recovering from the financial crisis. The board's chief economist, Dana Peterson, said consumers expect both business conditions and the labor market to weaken over the next six months. As Day reports, the Iran War has driven oil prices sharply higher, with average gasoline prices climbing from 2 dollars and 98 cents a gallon to over 4 dollars and 40 cents. That surge is feeding broader inflation, which stood at 3.4 percent in August, well above the Federal Reserve's 2 percent target. The University of Michigan's separate survey of consumers also recorded growing pessimism in September, suggesting the sentiment is broad-based across working and middle-class households. Those are today's highlights. For the full stories and more, visit theamericanconservative.com. Thank you for starting your morning with us.

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  The American Conservative Morning Briefing

  September 30, 2026

  Sep 30, 20264 min

  Good morning! Today is Wednesday, September 30th 2026, and this is The American Conservative's Morning Brief. Speaker Mike Johnson abruptly cancelled a House session to head off Thomas Massie's forced vote on impeaching Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, with Luke Nicastro arguing the GOP fears the eight detailed articles could fuel future Democratic prosecutions—and even international proceedings at the Hague. On day 214 of the war with Iran, Tehran says it's still awaiting a formal U.S. response to its ceasefire proposal, a vessel was struck in the Strait of Hormuz, and gasoline at home has climbed to $4.46 a gallon. and now for the details. We begin on Capitol Hill, where Speaker Mike Johnson abruptly cancelled the final day of the House session earlier this month, sending members home a day early. The reason, according to Representative Thomas Massie of Kentucky, was to head off a forced vote on the impeachment of Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth. Massie's measure carried a 48-hour timer, and by adjourning early, Johnson punted the matter until after the midterms. Massie has dubbed the cancelled day "the Hegseth holiday." As Luke Nicastro reports for The American Conservative, this was more than a procedural dodge. Massie's articles of impeachment are eight in number, and they are specific and serious: they accuse Hegseth of using U.S. forces for unauthorized hostilities in Iran, Venezuela, and Yemen; violating the War Powers Resolution; ordering extrajudicial killings in the Caribbean and Eastern Pacific; ignoring congressional requirements to minimize civilian casualties; and using the Pentagon to retaliate against Democratic Senator Mark Kelly of Arizona. Polling suggests a majority of Americans support Hegseth's impeachment, and Nicastro notes that even an unsuccessful vote would be politically damaging for both Johnson and the White House. But Nicastro argues there is a deeper reason for the GOP's alarm. Should Democrats retake power, Hegseth is likely to be a top target for congressional investigations and possible prosecution, and Nicastro writes that some observers are even speculating about future cooperation with the International Criminal Court at the Hague. To have Massie's articles debated and memorialized in the public record, Nicastro concludes, would supply raw material for exactly those future proceedings, both domestic and international. Turning to the war with Iran, now in its 214th day. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Tuesday that Tehran is still awaiting a formal U.S. response to a ceasefire plan it proposed last week. President Trump has publicly rejected the proposal, but Araghchi suggested through Qatari and Pakistani mediators that Washington has not officially closed the door. Trump on Monday denied an Axios report that he was willing to release Iranian assets and ease sanctions in exchange for nuclear concessions, calling the story a hoax. Andrew Day reports that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned Tuesday that Israel's enemies may try to strike before elections scheduled for late October, vowing that Israel's "long arm will reach you anywhere, anytime." Meanwhile, a vessel transiting the Strait of Hormuz was struck by what the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations described as an "unknown projectile," damaging an engine room and causing one casualty. The economic toll continues to register at home. A framework peace deal signed in June by the U.S. and Iran had aimed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz under Iranian administration, but that agreement broke down when Washington sought a shipping corridor near the Omani coast, outside Iranian control. Brent crude briefly topped $108 a barrel Monday before settling near $105. The average price of gasoline in America stood at $4.46 on Tuesday, up from $2.98 before the war began. Those are today's highlights. For the full stories and more, visit theamericanconservative.com. Thank you for starting your morning with us.

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  The American Conservative Morning Briefing

  September 29, 2026

  Sep 29, 20264 min

  Good morning! Today is Tuesday, September 29th 2026, and this is The American Conservative's Morning Brief. Jack Hunter argues in The American Conservative that Trump's collapsing approval and looming midterm losses might have been avoided had he governed more like Thomas Massie, whose positions on Iran, the Epstein files, and tariffs have all proven more popular with voters. Andrew Day dismantles Ben Shapiro's claim that the Iran war hasn't damaged Trump politically, pointing to gas prices that have jumped from $2.98 to $4.48 a gallon, diesel nearing $6.50, and an inflation uptick directly tied to the conflict. Both writers conclude that Americans see clearly what has happened, and the once-winning MAGA coalition has fractured over betrayals on war, spending, and transparency. and now for the details. We begin this morning with a look at the president's political fortunes heading into the midterms. Writing for The American Conservative, Jack Hunter poses a provocative question: would Republicans be in better shape today if Donald Trump had governed more like Kentucky Congressman Thomas Massie? Hunter notes that Trump's approval ratings are sinking to historic lows, and his party faces the prospect of steep losses in November. The relationship between Trump and Massie has been rocky, most recently after the president joined with billionaire donors to try to oust the congressman in Kentucky's May GOP primary, the most expensive House primary in American history. But Hunter argues that on issue after issue, Massie has picked the position now proving more popular with voters. On the Iran war, Real Clear Politics shows Trump's handling underwater by nearly 30 points. An Economist/YouGov poll found 51 percent of respondents supported Massie's move to impeach Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth over the war. On the Epstein files, only 26 percent of Americans approve of Trump's handling, and 68 percent believe the government is covering up evidence. Meanwhile, a Quinnipiac poll now shows more Americans sympathize with the Palestinians than the Israelis, and a Cato Institute survey finds 74 percent say Trump's tariffs have raised prices at the store. Hunter closes with Massie's own words on X: "Economic fallout of the Iran War and withholding Epstein Files are dragging down Republicans in the midterms." As Hunter puts it, Americans aren't confused. They're mad. And they know exactly what's happened. Staying with the political fallout from the Iran conflict, Andrew Day writes for The American Conservative that the war has damaged Trump's approval ratings, consumed his presidency, and darkened Republican prospects, no matter what Israel-first commentators may claim. Day takes direct aim at Daily Wire host Ben Shapiro, who has argued Trump's decline is about affordability, not foreign policy. Day counters that the two are inseparable. On the eve of the war, regular gasoline averaged $2.98 a gallon. Today, it stands at $4.48. Diesel has smashed records, sitting near $6.50, up from $3.76 before the war, prompting rumors of a trucker strike. Day notes that inflation, which had been trending down toward the Fed's 2 percent target, now sits at 3.4 percent, with the war responsible for more than a third of the recent uptick. He cites election analyst Ryan Girdusky, who observes that Trump's approval and economic confidence actually rose after his tariff rollout, then plummeted at the start of the Iran War. Day also takes on Fox News host Mark Levin, who has dismissed Iran as a "4-percent issue." The subtler problem, Day writes, is that Americans believe Trump is too focused on foreign policy at the expense of the cost-of-living concerns his war has made worse. If there is any silver lining, Day suggests, it is that Americans no longer buy the war narratives being sold to them. Those are today's highlights. For the full stories and more, visit theamericanconservative.com. Thank you for starting your morning with us.

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