Episode #101
Why Nickel's Six-Month Low Could Reverse 20-30% by Year-End
Recording date: 20th September 2026 Mark Selby, Chairman and CEO of Canada Nickel Company, used this Battery Show appearance to argue that nickel's slide to $16,000-$17,000 a tonne — the bottom of a six-month trading range — reflects positioning around Indonesian ore export quotas rather than a genuine deterioration in fundamentals. Indonesian ore production is running below last year's pace, and the government has not confirmed whether it will approve the full requested quota or the additional top-up companies have flagged. A revised limonite ore pricing formula briefly unsettled sentiment when HPAL producers, already squeezed by high sulphur costs, proved unable to pay the new benchmark. The demand side of Selby's argument is the more striking element. Stainless steel demand, roughly two-thirds of total nickel consumption, is up 5% year to date. Nickel flowing into the battery precursor supply chain is up 35% year-over-year, a figure well ahead of the 5% EV sales growth and 12% battery-size growth typically cited, and far above the 2-3% demand growth consensus analysts assumed entering the year. Combined with global supply down 3-4%, Selby expects a 20-30% price recovery into year-end and early 2026, with the seasonal Philippine production trough adding further physical tightness through the winter months. Cobalt prices, an important HPAL byproduct credit, have eased from a Congo export-ban-driven spike near $25 a pound to around $18, with Selby expecting a further drift toward $15. The corporate round-up covers several companies exposed to the same commodity thesis. Talon Metals' high-grade Tamarack drill result — 13% nickel and 16% copper over a 750-800 metre-deep interval — draws praise as one of the best holes Selby has seen, alongside a valuation caution: the market's roughly $1.5 billion implied value is compared to Voisey's Bay and Glencore's Raglan, builds that each cost around $2.5 billion and took roughly six years to reach production. Homeland Nickel's Oregon laterite consolidation, under CEO Steve Balch, is benchmarked against Ardea Resources, Nickel 28 and the now-defunct Horizonte Minerals to illustrate relative value in the pre-resource nickel space. Magna Mining's recent financing from a South American private investor gets a brief mention as a positive funding development in the Sudbury basin. Canada Nickel's own news flow features prominently: the company's main federal permit closed at the end of July, a ninth Timmins district resource was published, infill drilling at Reed produced its best results yet, Komatsu was selected for a roughly C$1.5 billion mining fleet contract, and a $21 million financing closed at the end of August. Selby also referenced Canada's recent Investment Summit and the government's new immediate capital write-off and streamlined permitting initiatives, alongside the company's RWE Supply and Trading offtake agreement targeting European low-carbon nickel demand. Investors should weigh Selby's price and valuation commentary against independent market data, given his direct financial interest in both the commodity and several of the companies discussed. Learn more: https://cruxinvestor.com
