Episode #10
The Beef Crisis: Why Imports Aren't Lowering Prices
Americans are paying more for beef than ever before, but the reasons extend far beyond temporary inflation or seasonal shortages. According to Bill Bullard, CEO of R-CALF USA , today’s record prices are the culmination of more than forty years of policy decisions that steadily weakened America’s cattle industry. This week on The Big 3 with senior economists Mihir Torsekar and Andrew Rechenberg, the discussion begins with the historic decline in the U.S. cattle herd, now the smallest in roughly seventy-five years. Bullard argues this contraction did not happen overnight. Instead, decades of consolidation among meatpackers, declining competition, and steadily increasing imports have hollowed out the domestic cattle industry. The result is fewer ranchers, fewer feedlots, fewer processing plants, and ultimately fewer cattle available to meet growing consumer demand. The team also challenge the common assumption that high grocery prices mean ranchers are enjoying record profits. Ranching remains an asset-intensive business with significant land, feed, fuel, and labor costs. Because cattle require nearly three years from breeding to market, producers cannot quickly respond to changing prices. Many ranchers still operate on narrow margins despite higher cattle prices, while retailers have captured a growing share of profits throughout the supply chain. Another major theme is the misconception that imports solve food inflation. Despite beef imports increasing dramatically over recent years, retail beef prices have continued climbing. Bullard argues imports simply displace domestic production without creating new American ranchers, new cattle, or new processing capacity. Instead, he contends that long-term affordability depends on rebuilding the domestic herd and giving producers confidence that future investments will not be undercut by policy changes or import surges. The conversation also explores broader structural issues affecting the industry, including concentrated meatpacking, country-of-origin labeling, enforcement of antitrust laws, and tariff-rate quotas. Bullard argues that restoring competition throughout the supply chain is essential if producers are to expand herds and consumers are to benefit from more stable prices. Finally, the discussion turns to Brazil and the ongoing Section 301 investigation into illegal deforestation. Bullard explains why R-CALF believes Brazilian beef should not receive an exemption from potential tariffs, arguing that beef exports are directly connected to the deforestation practices under investigation. Exempting beef, he says, would undermine both environmental objectives and American cattle producers. The episode concludes with a broader message: rebuilding America’s cattle industry is not simply about lowering grocery bills. It is about restoring rural communities, strengthening national food security, and ensuring that future generations of independent ranchers have the confidence to invest in expanding domestic production. CHAPTERS: 00:00 - Why Beef Prices Are So High 00:41 - America's Beef Crisis Explained 01:51 - Bill Bullard Joins The Big Three 02:40 - Why the U.S. Cattle Herd Is Shrinking 13:21 - Why Ranchers Still Struggle 21:26 - Rebuilding America's Beef Industry 24:31 - Brazilian Beef & Section 301 Tariffs 29:30 - The Path to Affordable Beef