The Investor's Diary
What Breaks When Rates Go Up?
Interest rates were supposed to be done rising. In Australia, the RBA already hiked three times this year — then paused, then flipped again after a hot inflation print. In the US, the Fed just held, but three officials dissented in favor of hiking, and the committee’s own forecast now points up, not down. Last time we lived through a hiking cycle like this, in 2023, three banks collapsed in eight weeks. In this episode, I break down exactly what broke, why the “safe” trade at Silicon Valley Bank turned into the fastest bank run in history — and then I make the case for where I think the next crack actually shows up. Hint: it’s not the banks. It’s hiding one layer beneath the biggest capital story of the decade — the debt quietly funding the AI buildout.
