The IRF Podcast

Insights from some of the world's top independent investment research providers spanning a range of countries, asset classes and themes.

The IRF Podcast is a business podcast hosted by irfpodcast, with 100 episodes on record and a Required Pod Score of 80.

irfpodcast hosts The IRF Podcast, a business show with 100 episodes published.

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  Episode #116

  “Is the US Fed on a New Course and Now Off Course?”, Danielle DiMartino Booth, QI Research

  Sep 24, 202625 min

  David Osman of IRF is joined by Danielle DiMartino Booth, the Founder, CEO & Chief Strategist of QI Research. ----more---- In this podcast Danielle DiMartino Booth explains how her detailed analysis of the underlying trends in the US economy indicates that the US economic output is slowing rapidly. Danielle’s non-consensus view suggests that in the year ahead both economic growth and inflation are likely to be weaker than the central bank’s own forecasts. This raises questions about the changing conduct of monetary policy under the leadership of the new chairman of the Federal Reserve, Kevin Warsh. Danielle argues that the Fed’s current forward guidance seems to be misleading, which has implications for the federal funds target rate and the shape of the Treasury bond yield curve. Danielle discusses the implications of likely Democrat victories in the midterm elections in November for the House and for the Senate, with particular reference to the probable impact on fiscal policy. Danielle then discusses the outlook for the stock market, the AI investment boom and the US dollar, highlighting the some of the more attractive investment opportunities and key risk factors. Prior to QI Research, which she founded in 2015, Danielle spent nine years at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas where she served as an analyst and senior advisor to the President, Richard Fisher. Before serving in the public sector, Danielle lived in New York, and worked at the DLJ investment bank and at Credit Suisse. Danielle is a frequent keynote speaker at conferences and seminars, a regular commentator in the financial media, and the author in 2017 of the book: “Fed Up: An Insider’s Take on Why the Federal Reserve is Bad for America”. QI Research is an independent research and analytics firm that serves institutional clients, family offices and commercial real estate professionals. QI Research has become a trusted voice in macroeconomic analysis that is known for its bold, independent approach.

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  Episode #115

  “Global Financial Markets: From Sunshine to Moonshine”, Ron William, RW Advisory

  Jul 23, 202622 min

  David Osman of IRF is joined by Ron William, the Founder of RW Advisory. In this podcast Ron assesses the underlying cyclical trends in the global financial markets and highlights those sectors and investment styles that should perform well during the remainder of this year from a structural and tactical perspective. ----more---- Ron then discusses the importance of his business cycle roadmap and what it implies for 2027. He says that this, in conjunction with the unfolding convergence of short-, medium- and long-term cycles in the next 5 – 6 years, indicates that we are in a prolonged late-cycle period of slower economic growth and inflation volatility due to potential energy, fiscal and geopolitical shocks. Ron discusses what this will likely mean for short term interest rates, long-term government bond yields and the yield curve in the US and elsewhere over the next 18 months, including the potential for a “generational regime shift”. Ron also explains what this means for world stock markets, with particular reference to the US and the AI investment theme. In addition, he discusses the outlook for the currency and commodity markets, highlighting the prospects the US dollar, gold and Bitcoin in both the near term and the longer term. Ron concludes by highlighting his high-conviction investment recommendations for his preferred markets, sectors and styles, as well as identifying the main risks that investors should watch out for. Ron William is a market strategist with over 20 years of experience producing macro research, trading strategies and insightful non-consensus ideas for leading economic research and institutional firms. Ron is also a behavioural finance expert, trading psychologist and performance coach. RW Advisory specialises in blended, top-down, semi-discretionary analysis, driven by his cycles roadmap and by his proprietary timing models, which use both quantitative and qualitative techniques.

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  Episode #114

  “Managing Global Asset Allocation Portfolios In Challenging & Changing Times”, Chris Watling, Longview Economics

  Jul 16, 202627 min

  David Osman of IRF is joined by Chris Watling, the Founder, CEO & Chief Market Strategist at Longview Economics. ----more---- In this podcast, Chris Watling explains how the A.I. investment boom is impacting on the US economy and elsewhere. He discusses the underlying trends in income and consumption with reference to the wealth-effect of the A.I.-driven rise in the US stock market. He points out how US economic growth appears to be broadening in response to the credit cycle and the industrial cycle. Chris discusses the outlook for inflation, with particular reference to the current geopolitical concerns and the rise in energy costs. He then assesses the likely differences in the monetary policy responses in Europe, the US and Japan. He also explains how the conduct of US monetary policy is likely to evolve under the new Fed Chairman, Kevin Warsh and how that will eventually influence other central banks around the world. This leads into a discussion about the outlook for the US dollar. Then, in conjunction with his view on the prospects for the world economy, Chris sets out some of his key global strategy recommendations for asset allocations in the Bond, Equity and Commodity markets, including his views on several of the most important emerging markets. Prior to founding LongView Economics in 2003, Chris Watling was the European Economist and Strategist at Cazenove where he developed his proprietary Risk Appetite Gauge Models, which are also known as “RAG” Models. When combined with SELL-off indicators, these “RAG” Models have proved to be very successful in calling equity market direction and timing waves of risk aversion in global markets. LongView Economics is an Independent Global Macro and Strategy Advisory Boutique that is located in London. Their pioneering research approach brings Macro and Markets together, drawing on Deep Macro Analysis of the most important global themes, cycles and events in order to make actionable, often contrarian, investment and trading recommendations.

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  Episode #113

  "The Resilience of the East Asian Economies"

  May 17, 202628 minS0

  <p>David Osman of IRF is joined by Paul Cavey, the Founder of East Asia Econ.</p> <p> ----more----</p> <p>In this podcast, Paul Cavey of East Asia Econ explains that there are two terms of trades shocks playing through in East Asia at present, one positive, one negative. He points out that the A.I. boom and the strength of the global semiconductor sector have helped the stock markets of Japan, South Korea and Taiwan to reach new record highs recently, despite the Gulf war and the oil price shock. With respect to China, Paul discusses the evidence...

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  Episode #112

  “China: A Generational Pivot?”, Dinny McMahon, Trivium China

  Mar 6, 202633 minS0

  <p>David Osman of IRF is joined by Dinny McMahon, the Head of China Markets Research at Trivium China.</p> <p>----more----</p> <p>In this podcast, Dinny McMahon assesses China’s economic policies and the underlying state of the economy, including the ongoing deep-rooted problems in the property sector. Dinny then discusses the extent to which China might continue to fail to achieve its objective of a consumption-led growth model in the next few years. He questions the appropriateness of China’s fiscal policy and monetary stance, given the extent to which the economy has been flirting with deflation for...

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