The Julia La Roche Show

Julia La Roche brings her listeners in-depth conversations with some of the top CEOs, investors, founders, academics, and rising stars in business. Guests on "The Julia La Roche Show" have included Bill Ackman, Ray Dalio, Marc Benioff, Kyle Bass, Hugh Hendry, Nassim Taleb, Nouriel Roubini, David Friedberg, Anthony Scaramucci, Scott Galloway, Brent Johnson, Jim Rickards, Danielle DiMartino Booth, Carol Roth, Neil Howe, Jim Rogers, Jim Bianco, Josh Brown, and many more. Julia always makes the show about the guest, never the host. She speaks less and listens more. She always does her homework.

The Julia La Roche Show is a business podcast hosted by Unknown Host, with 416 episodes on record and a Required Pod Score of 80.

Unknown Host hosts The Julia La Roche Show, a business show with 416 episodes published.

Our AI reads these to draft pitches. Use them as grounding for a pitch that cites a real guest and a specific topic.

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  Episode #445

  #414 Andy Constan: Markets Vulnerable to Disappointment, Cautious on Equities, and the 60/40 Strikes Back

  Sep 29, 202657 min

  Andy Constan, founder and CIO of Damped Spring and a veteran of Bridgewater and Brevan Howard, makes his debut on The Julia La Roche Show. He lays out his four-pillar macro framework and explains why he's turning cautious on equities despite a strong U.S. economy. His "pie theory" argues that the earnings AI companies are promising add up to more than the GDP available to deliver them. His "hamburger theory" warns that the massive borrowing needed to fund AI capex could stall if capital markets take a breather. With rates spiking for the seventh time since COVID, Constan doubts policymakers will engineer another V-top. He is currently short equities and max long long-term bonds, arguing that the much-maligned 60/40 portfolio is finally worth owning again. He also gives his early read on Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, explains what it would really take to kill inflation, and argues that this cycle has no clean historical analog because it's fueled by public-sector rather than private-sector debt. He closes with the story of analyzing every trade from the 1987 crash on the Brady Commission at age 23, and his core advice: own a well-constructed portfolio at your risk target and hold it for life. Thank you to our partners Augusta Precious Metals — To learn more, visit https://juliabuysgold.com/ or text “Julia" to 35052 Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/ Links: Website: https://dampedspring.com/ X: https://x.com/dampedspring Substack: https://substack.com/@dampedspring Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction and welcome Andy Constan 00:50 The four-pillar macro framework: growth, inflation, risk premium, positioning 02:42 Where we are: a strong economy and 66 months of above-target inflation 05:20 AI and the "pie theory": why there isn't enough GDP for the earnings expectations 12:22 The "hamburger theory": who pays for the AI capex boom 13:50 The seventh rate spike: will it V-top again? 17:43 Why he's getting cautious on stocks 18:13 How most people should invest: risk targets and always owning beta 21:43 Seeking alpha and his current positioning: short equities, max long bonds 24:21 "The 60/40 Strikes Back": why bonds make sense again 29:30 Bonds finally get the growth memo 31:58 Vulnerable to disappointment, not recession 32:52 His read on Kevin Warsh at the Fed 36:59 What it would actually take to kill inflation 38:45 Why the administration isn't fighting inflation 41:37 What's mispriced right now 43:35 Historical analogs: 0DTE options, portfolio insurance, and a public-debt-driven cycle 48:09 Serving on the Brady Commission after the 1987 crash at age 23 53:02 Parting thoughts and where to find Andy The content of this podcast is provided for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Nothing discussed should be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Guests' views are their own. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.

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  Episode #413

  #413 Chris Whalen: Bonds, Gold, Energy, & the Coming Food Shock

  Sep 26, 202632 min

  Chris Whalen joins Julia La Roche to break down a turbulent week in markets, as the 30-year Treasury hits its highest yield since 2004 and the 10-year breaks 5%. Chris argues that long rates have structurally reset, driven by Washington's credibility problem and the deficit rather than by the Fed, and he says 7%+ mortgage rates are the new normal as the housing industry heads into consolidation. He makes the case that the world is moving back toward a pre-WWI-style system with gold at its foundation, and explains why he's still long gold and silver despite short-term swings. Drawing on his conversation with John Dizard, Chris explains how damaged Persian Gulf refining capacity is squeezing diesel and sulfur supplies, sending fertilizer prices up eightfold and setting up a food price shock next year. He warns that double-digit inflation is already "baked into the cake," and predicts demand destruction could force the Fed to cut rates by 2027. In viewer questions, Chris covers trimming his Annaly position to buy energy stocks, means-testing Social Security, where housing prices are falling, and the risks private credit poses to life insurance and long-term care policies. Thank you to our sponsor, Monetary Metals. Learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/THEWRAP/ Links: The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/ Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen https://www.amazon.com/Inflated-Money-Debt-American-Dream/dp/139428571X Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricing ⁠ Timestamps: 0:00 – Preview 0:28 – Welcome to The Wrap 1:06 – 30-year yield hits 2004 high, 10-year breaks 5% 2:18 – 7%+ mortgage rates: the new normal 3:16 – What higher rates mean for housing and the mortgage industry 4:24 – Fed hike and whether Warsh has lost the long end 5:48 – Inflated and the University Club talk 6:34 – Gold and the return to a pre-WWI monetary system 7:40 – Sponsor: Monetary Metals 8:55 – Why rising yields haven't broken the gold thesis 9:49 – The dollar and a multilateral currency world 11:58 – October hike? The refinery capacity crisis 14:05 – Diesel, sulfur, and the fertilizer shock 15:40 – Double-digit inflation is "baked into the cake" 16:36 – The endgame: Iran and the Strait of Hormuz 18:22 – Demand destruction and why the Fed may cut 21:24 – Viewer Q: Selling Annaly, buying energy 23:36 – Viewer Q: Any shorts? 24:21 – Viewer Q: An oversight board for Congress and means-testing Social Security 27:42 – Why Social Security is invested in Treasuries 29:10 – Viewer Q: Will housing prices fall? 30:23 – Viewer Q: Private credit and long-term care policies 31:25 – Wrap-up

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  Episode #412

  #412 Michael Pento: 2027 Will Be a Very Difficult Year – Here's Why

  Sep 24, 202650 min

  Michael Pento, president and founder of Pento Portfolio Strategies (PPS), returns to The Julia La Roche Show to warn that the U.S. faces what he calls a "triumvirate of bubbles" in equities, real estate, and credit, all inflated at once for the first time in history. He argues that years of persistent inflation, soaring national debt, foreign creditors stepping back from Treasuries, and the unwinding of the yen carry trade are pushing bond yields higher, and that rising rates will ultimately burst all three bubbles. For the first time since 2021, Pento gives a timeline: he expects 2027 to be a very difficult year as the Fed under Chair Kevin Warsh hikes rates and slows balance sheet growth, putting it in direct conflict with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's efforts to hold down long-term yields. Pento explains why he reluctantly uses the word "depression," why the traditional 60/40 portfolio could fail retirees, and why he believes the Fed will eventually return to money printing, triggering a prolonged era of "hyperstagflation." He also shares how he's positioned today, still net long, with short-term Treasuries, dividend payers, and precious metals, while watching credit markets closely because "the clock is ticking." Thank you to our partners Augusta Precious Metals — To learn more, visit https://juliabuysgold.com/ or text “Julia" to 35052 Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/ Links: https://pentoport.com/ https://twitter.com/michaelpento 0:00 Cold open: "With reluctance, depression" 0:19 Welcome back, Michael Pento 0:59 The macro picture: 5+ years of inflation crushing consumers 4:16 Insolvency, foreign creditors & the yen carry trade unwind 8:15 Sponsor: Monetary Metals 10:06 The "triumvirate of bubbles": stocks, real estate & credit 14:40 Not a perma-bear: 35 years in the business 15:18 Pento's first timeline since 2021: why 2027 20:08 The forgotten middle class & why the pain is necessary 21:39 Sponsor: Augusta Precious Metals 23:12 Warsh vs. Bessent: are the Fed and Treasury at odds? 24:43 Who wins? "The free market always wins" 25:43 Why he's calling it a depression, not a recession 28:26 Retirees beware: the danger of the 60/40 portfolio 33:02 Where to hide in "hyperstagflation" 34:48 How Pento is positioned right now (still net long) 39:19 Is there hope on the other side? 42:32 The biggest risk nobody's watching: long-term rates 43:33 Record debt, private credit & "this is not normal" 46:28 How to follow Michael Pento

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  Episode #411

  #411 George Noble: Market Is Entering a Dangerous Phase

  Sep 22, 202640 min

  George Noble, CIO of Noble Capital Advisors and former Fidelity fund manager under Peter Lynch, joins Julia in studio as the 10-year Treasury yield breaks 5% and the Fed hikes rates. George says his call is "rotation, not recession." He's passionately bearish on tech and consumer discretionary and wildly bullish on gold and energy, which have been on fire this year. He argues the bond market is driving everything: runaway deficits and the AI capex boom are pushing up the global cost of capital. In his view, today's rates aren't abnormal; the long era of depressed rates was. He gives a pointed critique of Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's attempts to suppress yields and explains why the Fed follows the market rather than leading it. He also makes the case that the real bubble is in earnings, not valuations. The conversation covers private credit, the housing correction, $40 trillion in debt, and the money illusion of pricing assets in dollars rather than gold. George explains why he thinks rates and oil keep rising until the market breaks, and why the risk-reward favors gold, energy, and cash over the traditional 60/40 portfolio. Thank you to our partners Augusta Precious Metals — To learn more, visit https://juliabuysgold.com/ or text “Julia" to 35052 Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/ Links: George Noble's Best Stock Ideas Online Summit: https://noble-capevents.com/ X: https://x.com/gnoble79 Substack: https://substack.com/@georgenoble Timestamps: 0:00 Intro 1:12 Big picture: "weeks where decades happen" as the 10-year breaks 5% 2:23 "R is for rotation, not recession" 5:18 How high can rates go? Why the ultra-low-rate era was the abnormal one 8:28 Why we're in a dangerous phase of the market 11:46 Why rotation comes before recession: deficits are force-feeding the economy 12:57 Passionately bearish on consumer, wildly bullish on gold and energy 13:31 George's critique of Scott Bessent, plus lessons from Soros vs. the Bank of England 16:45 "I am the house": Bessent, hubris, and Mr. Market 20:18 $40 trillion in debt and "banana republic" behavior 21:48 Midterm elections and what a sweep could mean for markets 22:20 The ticking clock in private credit and private equity 23:17 The Fed's rate hike: Warsh, word salad, and why the Fed follows the market 28:07 The real bubble isn't valuations, it's earnings 30:25 The housing correction is already happening 31:11 Money illusion: the S&P and bonds priced in gold, not "American pesos" 35:35 What "the market breaks" actually looks like 38:44 How George is positioned: gold, energy, cash, and picking stocks 39:17 Closing thoughts

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  Episode #410

  #410 Chris Whalen: Age of Uncertainty - Falling Home Prices, Cracks in Private Credit, & Sidelined Fed

  Sep 19, 202634 min

  Chris Whalen returns after the FOMC's 25-basis-point hike and calls it what he wrote in his notes: lame. His argument is that the Fed has become the tail and the Treasury the dog — with a $2 trillion deficit running above 6% of GDP, monetary policy is close to irrelevant, and Kevin Warsh will eventually be forced back into QE and debt monetization whether he wants it or not. That leaves Congress, which Whalen says has stopped doing the one job only it can do, prompting a provocative exchange with Julia about whether a fiscal crisis ends with a manager running the purse the way FDR ran 1933. From there the conversation turns to where the damage shows up: housing, where more than half of American homes fell in price over the past year and Whalen expects a real correction into 2028; private credit and insurance, where he agrees with Jeffrey Gundlach that private credit is the fuse and the insurers are the bomb, and warns annuity holders at the wrong carriers may not be made whole; and energy, where the Houthis' grip on the Red Sea may force the refining industry to redeploy away from the Persian Gulf entirely. He also walks through his own portfolio — Schwab, Flagstar, Annaly, AGNC, and steady additions to gold and silver — explains why he holds no T-bills, and gives his take on the SEC's innovation exemption, calling crypto tokens a polite form of fraud better regulated by state gaming commissions. Thank you to our sponsor, Monetary Metals. Learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/THEWRAP/ Links: The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/ Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen Seeing Around Corners book: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/product-page/seeing-around-corners-achieving-success-in-business-and-life-hardcover Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricing Timestamps: 0:00 – Welcome back 1:03 – "The Fed had to do something or be irrelevant" 5:38 – Is the FOMC even relevant anymore? 5:57 – Treasury is the dog, the Fed is the tail 6:20 – The Fed will be forced to monetize the debt 6:48 – A dysfunctional Congress 9:39 – The age of uncertainty 10:00 – Half of American homes fell in price this year 11:12 – Misery on the Eights: the correction into 2028 11:24 – Gundlach: private credit is the fuse, insurance is the bomb 11:50 – How PE used insurers to compound too fast 13:28 – Why annuity holders are calling 14:02 – Duration matching and the part of the industry that works 15:28 – Energy 16:03 – Trump, the war he started, and no leadership 17:15 – Echoes of the 1970s — and Europe's winter 18:41 – Bank stocks are dead; deposit costs are rising again 20:34 – The AI trade 21:28 – Where do you put money with no clear narrative? 21:48 – Gold doesn't trade like a stock 22:20 – Chris on his own portfolio 23:06 – Schwab, Bank of America, and the low-hanging fruit nobody picks 24:52 – Crypto: the SEC's innovation exemption after Clarity failed 27:03 – Can Congress legislate at all after the midterms? 28:18 – Viewer Q: Does flattening change the Annaly call? 29:33 – Why Chris owns no T-bills 30:26 – What he's watching the rest of the year 31:37 – Close

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