Episode #178
EP 178: Is It Time to Buy? | Sig Thoma on Housing, OSB, Futures & the Next Market Move
The lumber market just dropped roughly $100 in three weeks - but is the selloff creating the next big buying opportunity? In Episode #178 of The Lumber Word, industry veteran Sig Thoma joins Ashley, Gregg, and Matt for a wide-ranging conversation about what's really happening beneath the surface of the lumber market. Inventories are getting lean, cash prices are falling well below published levels, and CME lumber futures are carrying a major discount. Sig brings a broader perspective to the conversation, including a fascinating look at a massive lumber buyer whose sheds were nearly empty - a sign that the industry may be running much leaner than many realize. The crew dives into Southern Yellow Pine, Canadian SPF, Western species, OSB, European lumber, housing and mill profitability. Sig explains why the OSB market has effectively become two different markets, with dramatically different pricing between the U.S. South and West. Then the conversation gets deeper. Why aren't more sawmills using CME lumber futures to lock in profitable sales? Could increased futures participation improve price discovery across the entire lumber industry? And could a transparent U.S.-based futures market eventually become part of the argument surrounding Canadian anti-dumping duties and how lumber's true market price is established? Sig also breaks down the housing problem: mortgage applications have fallen sharply from their June highs, new-home sales remain well below historical peaks, and affordability continues to constrain demand. The episode finishes with a fascinating discussion about pulp capacity and something most lumber buyers rarely think about: sawmill byproducts. Chips, sawdust, shavings and residual values can materially change sawmill economics - and losing pulp outlets could ultimately influence lumber production itself. Is this simply an August lumber correction - or is the market setting up for its next major trade? Timeline 00:00 - Lumber drops roughly $100 & the CME discount 06:00 - Cash lumber, mill pricing & where buyers are hiding 10:40 - Sig's incredible look at extremely lean inventories 14:25 - Southern Yellow Pine economics & Canadian SPF losses 15:00 - Sig breaks down the strange OSB market 17:20 - European lumber arrivals & Eastern SPF 20:00 - Western species vs. CME futures 21:00 - Why aren't more sawmills using lumber futures? 25:00 - Forward pricing opportunities & multifamily 27:00 - Where could the lumber market finally bottom? 29:20 - What happens if you actually take CME delivery? 31:00 - Sig on futures culture & changing the lumber industry 32:20 - Housing, mortgage applications & affordability 35:50 - Southern sawmills, pulp capacity & mill economics 39:45 - Canadian lumber duties delayed 41:00 - Could CME pricing challenge the anti-dumping argument? 44:00 - Manufacturing, tariffs & deglobalization 46:30 - A wild real-world CME delivery story 48:15 - Sig closes with a classic story & market warning Keywords Lumber Market, Lumber Prices, Sig Thoma, CME Lumber Futures, Lumber Futures, SPF Lumber, Canadian Lumber, Southern Yellow Pine, OSB Prices, Housing Market, Mortgage Rates, Sawmills, Lumber Duties, Anti-Dumping Duties, Softwood Lumber, Lumber Trading, Building Materials, Wood Products, Lumber Industry, The Lumber Word Podcast
