The OPEX Effect

The OPEX Effect is a joint podcast from Excess Returns and SpotGamma where we take a deep dive into the world of options and the flows they generate in markets. Join Brent Kochuba and Jack Forehand every month on Options Expiration week as they look at the major developments in the options world and how they impact all of our portfolios.

The OPEX Effect is a business podcast hosted by Excess Returns, with 36 episodes on record and a Required Pod Score of 80.

Excess Returns hosts The OPEX Effect, a business show with 36 episodes published.

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  Episode #39

  Big Rally Collides with Oil and Rate Reality | What the Options Market Says Comes Next

  Sep 12, 202659 minS1

  SpotGamma founder Brent Kochuba joins Jack Forehand to break down September options expiration, the S&P 500's negative gamma risk, and what options positioning reveals about potential stock market volatility. They explore how rising oil prices, higher Treasury yields, and shifting AI sentiment could interact with a major expiration to change the market's direction. Brent explains why he measures this expiration at roughly $2 trillion rather than the $9 trillion making headlines, why he is watching the S&P 500's 7,600 level, and how falling technology stock volatility changes the opportunity set for options. Brent Kochuba on Twitter https://x.com/brentkochuba SpotGamma https://spotgamma.com Topics covered: How growing options volume and market maker hedging influence underlying stock prices. Why options expiration can change market trends and volatility as existing hedges unwind. The difference between headline options notional and SpotGamma's roughly $2 trillion delta-adjusted expiration estimate. What August's technology reset and Jackson Hole reaction reveal about investor positioning. How cheaper AI models, falling token prices, and public backlash complicate the technology investment story. Why declining semiconductor volatility and changing dispersion point to a potential market inflection. How negative gamma below S&P 7,600 could amplify selling, with 7,350 emerging as another level to watch. Why positive gamma in individual stocks could offset some of the index market's instability. How rising oil prices, Treasury yields, and stock correlations could challenge AI optimism and traditional stock-bond diversification. What CPI, the Fed meeting, VIX expiration, and midterm elections mean for hedging demand and options pricing. Timestamps: 00:00 Why Brent sees downside risk near market highs 05:19 Bessent's "I'm the house" comment meets rising yields 10:38 Options exchange growth and the bear market question 15:29 Why OPEX changes market behavior and how to measure its size 20:40 What August's tech reset and Jackson Hole revealed 24:43 Can AI earnings overcome rising macro risks? 30:14 The tech wedge, falling semiconductor volatility, and gamma risk 35:20 How expiration could reduce negative gamma exposure 39:21 Oil, Treasury yields, and stock correlations move together 44:22 Why the reason interest rates rise matters for stocks 49:48 Election hedges, Fed uncertainty, and returning put demand 54:43 S&P 7,600 and positioning for volatility in either direction Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network: https://excessreturns.co No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

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  Episode #37

  Not Since the Dot-Com Bubble | The Vol Signal Flashing for the First Time in 20 Years

  Jul 11, 20261h 5mS1

  Brent Kochuba of SpotGamma is back for The OPEX Effect to explain why July options expiration could remove a major source of market support and open the door to a volatility spike or stock market correction. We examine positive gamma, ultra-low S&P 500 implied volatility, near-record-low correlation, extreme Nasdaq volatility, AI stock dispersion and why the current setup resembles July 2024 before a 10% drawdown. Brent Kochuba on X https://x.com/spotgamma SpotGamma https://spotgamma.com Main topics covered Why markets have become numb to geopolitical risk, war headlines and oil volatility How market-maker hedging, positive gamma and systematic options selling stabilize stocks Why OPEX and VIX expiration can create a window of weakness or a window of strength How ETF growth, leveraged products and new listings create additional options exposure Why July OPEX is small for the S&P 500 but meaningful for AI and semiconductor stocks What happened to SpaceX volatility after traders sold expensive calls and puts Why expensive implied volatility can make put options lose money even when a stock falls What extreme COR1M and dispersion reveal about the divide beneath the market averages Why S&P 500 volatility is priced for perfection while Nasdaq volatility resembles a meme stock Why the VXN-VIX spread and July 2024 analog have Brent preparing for a potential correction Timestamps 00:00 Why markets are ignoring geopolitical risk 05:16 How systematic options flows stabilize stocks 09:33 Gamma squeezes and why OPEX can reset market trends 13:37 Positive gamma and suppressed daily volatility 17:41 How new listings and ETFs feed into options markets 21:48 Why July OPEX is concentrated in single stocks 25:48 Reviewing June guardrails and the AI stock correction 30:39 July gamma support and the post-OPEX window of weakness 38:34 Near-record-low correlation and a fragile market setup 44:20 S&P 500 volatility is priced for perfection 48:31 Why options are serially underpricing volatility 52:31 How AI could reshape the Nasdaq and its volatility 57:54 Why July 2024 may be the key OPEX analog 01:02:02 Brent's market risk outlook and hedging plan Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network: https://excessreturns.co No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

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  The OPEX Effect

  SpaceX, OPEX, and the Flows Behind the Biggest IPO in History

  Jun 13, 20261h 8m

  In this episode of The OPEX Effect, Brent Kochuba and Jack Forehand break down the market structure impact of the SpaceX IPO, options expiration, dealer gamma, volatility, and the next major setup for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. They discuss why SpaceX may trade more on flows than fundamentals, how call buying could create a gamma squeeze, and why June OPEX, VIX expiration, FOMC, oil, Iran headlines, and index inclusion could all collide at once. Brent Kochuba on X https://x.com/spotgamma SpotGamma https://spotgamma.com Topics covered: Why SpaceX is a flows game at the start of trading How the SpaceX IPO could affect liquidity across mega cap tech stocks Why fundamentals may not matter when index flows and forced buying dominate The role of Nasdaq, Russell, and S&P 500 index decisions in SpaceX trading How options could create a gamma squeeze in SpaceX Why dealer hedging flows can push stocks higher or lower What June options expiration could mean for the S&P 500 Why VIX expiration and FOMC create a key market window How Core1M signaled the recent volatility spasm Why expensive calls, not put buying, drove the recent market stress The key S&P 500 levels Brent is watching into OPEX How oil, rates, inflation, and Fed policy could affect market volatility Why Nasdaq options pricing is diverging from the S&P 500 How SpaceX index inclusion could widen the gap between Nasdaq and the S&P What would make Brent add protection or look for another short-term market correction Timestamps: 00:00 Opening clips and the SpaceX flow setup 05:27 Elon Musk net worth after the SpaceX IPO 07:13 SpaceX, liquidity, Mag Seven selling, and index demand 12:48 Why SpaceX may trade on flows before fundamentals 17:59 What options trading could change for SpaceX 22:05 How call buying can create a gamma squeeze 28:24 Why June OPEX matters more than a normal expiration 33:55 VIX expiration, FOMC, and market path dependency 37:20 The Core1M signal and the recent volatility spasm 41:22 The S&P 500 gamma map and key risk levels 46:25 Why expensive calls drove the market stress 50:14 Oil, rates, inflation, and the Fed setup 57:03 The JPMorgan collar and the 6900 to 7000 support zone 58:32 Nasdaq versus S&P 500 after the SpaceX IPO 01:03:14 Brent’s summary, SpaceX gamma squeeze risk, and the next market setup

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  Episode #35

  The Melt Up That No One Expected | What the Options Market Says About What Comes Next

  May 9, 20261h 7mS1

  Brent Kochuba of SpotGamma joins Jack Forehand for the May 2026 OPEX Effect to break down what options positioning is saying after a massive AI and semiconductor-led market rally. They discuss SPX call volume, zero DTE options, dealer gamma, VIX expiration, NVIDIA earnings, oil risk, AI CapEx, and why options flows may help explain both the market’s recent melt-up and the potential for a volatility shift after OPEX. Guest Links Brent Kochuba on X https://x.com/spotgamma SpotGamma https://spotgamma.com/ Topics Covered Why the market has ignored oil shocks and geopolitical risk while AI earnings dominate investor attention How AI CapEx, semiconductors and mega-cap tech have driven a powerful melt-up in stocks Why options volume and zero DTE trading are increasingly important for all investors How dealer hedging, delta and gamma can affect stock market moves Why options expiration can create short-term turning points in markets and volatility What the May OPEX setup says about call-heavy positioning in the S&P 500 Why single-stock options activity in NVIDIA, Tesla, Apple, Amazon and AI-related names matters How record SPX call volume is being driven by short-dated options flows Why Brent is watching VIX expiration, NVIDIA earnings and May 19 to May 20 for volatility expansion What oil, VIX, correlation and dispersion are signaling about market risk Timestamps 00:00 Intro: SPX call volume, call-heavy positioning and transient options flows 00:57 Are we in melt-up mode? 05:29 AI, UFOs and how fast market narratives are changing 09:00 Why options flows matter more for everyday investors 13:39 Could SpaceX become the next huge options market? 16:00 How dealer hedging, delta and gamma move through the market 20:44 Why OPEX can become a turning point for stocks and volatility 23:22 Why May OPEX is so call heavy 28:07 The market rally into May expiration 33:00 AI rebranding, meme behavior and downside headline risk 36:07 Reviewing last month’s oil and volatility setup 40:17 How the war flipped market leadership back to tech 44:13 Dealer gamma support in the S&P 500 49:19 Single-stock gamma in NVIDIA, Tesla, Apple and Amazon 51:06 Record SPX call volume and the role of zero DTE 54:55 Semiconductor, AI and memory call volume 57:50 From bearish positioning to peak-bull dispersion 59:22 Oil, the S&P 500 and changing correlations 01:03:06 COR1M, dispersion risk and when Brent considers hedging 01:04:57 Brent’s key takeaways for May OPEX and volatility expansion

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  Episode #34

  The Market the Tweets Can’t Break | What the Options Market Tells Us About What Comes Next

  Apr 11, 20261h 9mS1

  This episode of The Opex Effect breaks down why markets have remained surprisingly resilient despite geopolitical chaos, an oil shock, and extreme headline risk. Brent Kochuba joins Jack Forehand to analyze what’s really driving the market beneath the surface—from options flows and gamma positioning to the collapse in volatility and what it signals for the next move. They explore how the options market is shaping price action in ways most investors miss, why the VIX collapsed despite elevated risk, and what positioning tells us about the path forward as we head into earnings and the next major options expiration. Topics covered: Why markets have stayed near highs despite war, oil spikes, and macro uncertainty The “taco trade” and why investors expect bad news to reverse quickly How options flows and dealer hedging are influencing stock prices Why call options are historically cheap heading into earnings The mechanics of gamma, delta hedging, and market maker positioning Why options expiration (OpEx) can act as a turning point for markets The divergence between oil prices and equity volatility What the collapse in the VIX reveals about investor positioning The role of zero-DTE options in reinforcing short-term market ranges Key resistance levels forming from call selling and what they mean for upside Timestamps: 00:00 Why markets aren’t reacting to geopolitical chaos 04:18 The “taco trade” and shifting market expectations 07:30 How options flows influence stock market movements 11:10 Why OpEx can drive market turning points 13:05 Volatility compression and the gamma-volatility relationship 15:30 How large options positioning shapes market behavior 18:05 Why positioning has shifted toward calls 20:00 Why this OpEx may be less impactful than prior ones 22:00 Market positioning into earnings and key drivers ahead 24:10 Using gamma maps to identify support and resistance 27:00 Revisiting the JP Morgan collar trade and March lows 30:00 Correlation spikes and the oil-volatility relationship 33:00 Why oil has stopped driving equity volatility 34:30 The breakdown between oil and VIX correlation 36:00 Why volatility may reprice higher after OpEx 37:05 The oil curve and expectations for a short-term shock 39:40 One of the largest VIX collapses ever 41:00 How options positioning drove the volatility unwind 43:00 Why selling volatility has become a dominant strategy 45:00 The feedback loop between rising markets and falling volatility For more information on SpotGamma and Brent’s work: https://spotgamma.com Follow Brent on Twitter: https://twitter.com/spotgamma

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