The Polling Alley

The Polling Alley, the Overton Insights podcast, breaks down the latest polling numbers nationwide, making sense of where voters stand on politics, policy, and so much more. Listen in if you're interested in what voters are really thinking as we uncover the public opinion trends shaping today's political landscape.Mark Cunningham, Overton Insights Poll Director, and Michael Melendez, Founder of Tactical Campaigns, dive into what the numbers really mean for you. The Polling Alley is hosted by Olivia Michiels, Poll Analyst at Overton Insights.

The Polling Alley is a news podcast hosted by Overton Insights, with 12 episodes on record and a Required Pod Score of 80. PitchCentric scores this show on Booking Probability, Listen Score, and live audience signals refreshed every 24 hours.

Overton Insights hosts The Polling Alley, a news show with 12 episodes published.

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  Episode #12

  The Polling Alley: Episode 12

  Aug 14, 202617 minS1

  Wisconsin just delivered another big polling miss. Mark and Olivia sit down and discuss how David Crowley pulled off an upset in the Democratic primary for Governor, what the miss says about polling in contested primaries, and why a new Siena poll shows Kathy Hochul's lead in New York starting to narrow. In this episode, we cover: - How did every Wisconsin poll get it so wrong? – Francesca Hong led primary polls by more than 20 points and then lost to David Crowley by less than a point. We break down what went wrong with the polling, how it compares to Michigan's Senate primary miss two weeks earlier, and why Mark pushes back on the idea that prediction markets deserve the blame. - How the Minnesota Gubernatorial primary compares to Michigan and Wisconsin? Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan won the Democratic nomination for governor while former NFL sideline reporter Michelle Tafoya took the Republican side. We discuss why labels like "moderate" and "far-left" are getting harder to apply with any precision. - Is New York's governor race actually competitive? A new Siena poll shows Kathy Hochul's lead over her Republican challenger narrowing to 10 points. We explain why Mark calls it "fool's gold" for Republicans and what would actually need to happen for New York to be in play. SHOW NOTES: 00:00 - Coming up: a huge Wisconsin polling miss and a shrinking Hochul lead in New York 00:35 - David Crowley's shock win over Francesca Hong in Wisconsin 03:00 - Comparing Wisconsin's polling miss to Michigan's Senate primary two weeks earlier 05:54 - The betting markets flip overnight as votes come in 06:36 - Mark defends prediction markets against the "it's not real" critics 09:26 - Looking a the latest Crowley vs. Tiffany poll 11:12 - Minnesota's primary: Flanagan wins for the Democrats, Tafoya wins for the GOP 11:48 - Why "moderate" and "far-left" labels don't mean much anymore 13:43 - New Siena poll: Hochul's lead narrows to 10 points in New York 14:04 - Why Mark calls a competitive New York race "fool's gold" POLLS & LINKS: Siena College poll, New York gubernatorial race: https://www.politico.com/news/2026/08/12/siena-hochul-has-10-point-lead-over-blakeman-in-first-poll-of-likely-voters-01033560 General election poll, Wisconsin governor's race (Crowley +3): https://www.pollsmax.com/governor/wisconsin/ Kalshi, Wisconsin governor's race: https://kalshi.com/markets/govpartywi/wisconsin-governor/govpartywi-26 The Polling Alley features Mark Cunningham, the Overton Insights Poll Director and founder of the Beacon Poll. The Polling Alley is hosted by Overton Insights Poll Analyst, Olivia Michiels. Want to stay ahead of the data curve? Subscribe to The Polling Alley and join us as we decode the numbers behind the headlines. Follow us on X and Facebook- @OvertonInsights Visit our website - OvertonInsights.com

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  Episode #11

  Episode 11

  Aug 7, 202635 minS1

  The polls had Abdul El-Sayed cruising by 15-plus points in the Michigan Democratic Senate Primary. He won by one. This week we dig into one of the worst polling misses in recent history and what to take from it. In this episode, we cover: How did Michigan's Senate primary polls fool almost everyone? – El-Sayed edged Haley Stevens by a single point while polls and prediction markets had him winning by a much larger margin. Plus, Mallory McMorrow, already out of the race, still pulled 4%. We break down why the polls showed a blowout, the role of open-primaries and seasonality in polling, and whether pollsters herded toward the Emerson numbers. Texas and Wisconsin are closer than the headlines suggest – A new YouGov poll puts James Talarico up on Ken Paxton, but Randy calls Talarico's lead "fool's gold." We analyze the 2018 Cruz-Beto comparison, the money gap, and why Mark thinks Wisconsin's Democratic primary between Francesca Hong and David Crowley is far from settled. Maine, hot takes, and a sleeper Senate race – Troy Jackson leads Susan Collins in fresh Hart Research numbers, and we explain why we still wouldn't bet against Collins. Plus Randy's case that summer generic-ballot polls are overstating Democratic support, and Mark's pick for the race nobody's talking about. POLLS & LINKS: Emerson College Michigan Senate primary poll: https://emersoncollegepolling.com/michigan-2026-poll-abdul-el-sayed-leads-haley-stevens-for-democratic-us-senate-nomination/ YouGov Texas Senate poll (Talarico 48%, Paxton 45%): https://static1.squarespace.com/static/67aa7aa3e284b002cd6a420e/t/6a713767d4ed824b91ea090d/1785804647961/Texas+Statewide+August2026.pdf NYT/Siena Texas Senate poll (June, tied 47%/47%): https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2026/07/01/polls/times-siena-texas-poll-crosstabs.html Kalshi, Texas Senate Race: kalshi.com/markets/senatetx Polymarket, Texas Senate Race: polymarket.com/predictions/texas-senate PPP Wisconsin governor primary poll (Hong 52%, Crowley 33%): https://www.wisn.com/article/crowley-campaign-argues-primary-is-closer-than-polls-say-after-michigan-results/73358997 Marquette Law School Wisconsin poll (Hong 38%, and 46% with leaners): https://law.marquette.edu/poll/2026/07/29/marquette-law-poll-finds-expanded-support-for-hong-in-democratic-primary-barnes-sits-second-and-crowley-third/ Kalshi, Wisconsin Governor General Election: https://kalshi.com/markets/govpartywi/wisconsin-governor/govpartywi-26 Polymarket, Wisconsin Democratic primary: polymarket.com/event/wisconsin-governor-democratic-primary-winner Hart Research Maine Senate poll (Jackson 49%, Collins 45%): https://drive.google.com/file/d/1c_Oz7n375ncOkmMWPs8DJTKcBD3Gke4-/view "Moderate Democrats Prepare for 'War' Against an Ascendant Left," The New York Times: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/08/06/us/politics/democratic-party-socialists-moderates.html?searchResultPosition=1 Patrick Ruffini (Echelon Insights) "nobody knows nothing" post on X: https://x.com/PatrickRuffini/status/2084835353437860230?s=20 This episode of The Polling Alley features Overton Insights Poll Director Mark Cunningham, founder of the Beacon Poll, with special guest Randy Ellison, founder and president of Targoz Market Research and author of the Pollsters' Almanac on Substack. The Polling Alley is hosted by Overton Insights Poll Analyst, Olivia Michiels. Want to stay ahead of the data curve? Subscribe to The Polling Alley and join us as we decode the numbers behind the headlines. Follow us on X and Facebook - @OvertonInsights Visit our website - OvertonInsights.com

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  Episode #8

  The Polling Alley: Episode 8

  Jul 16, 202616 minS1

  Two new polls of Michigan's Democratic Senate primary released within days of each other disagree by twenty points on who's leading the field. Plus, who are "double haters" voting for in November? In this episode, we cover: - Which poll do you believe in Michigan's Senate primary? Detroit News and Data for Progress released dueling surveys on the Democratic Senate primary. One shows Haley Stevens up 7 points. The other, an internal poll from the Abdul El-Sayed campaign, shows him up 13 points. - Republicans, be careful what you wish for. Some Republicans are rooting for El-Sayed to win the primary, betting he's the weaker general election opponent. We discuss why that strategy could backfire. - Meet the "double haters." A new G. Elliott Morris/Verasight poll finds one in five voters rate both parties below 50 on a feeling thermometer scale. These "double haters" favor Democrats by 26 points. We unpack why this group leans left, and the one stat in the poll that actually matters for the midterms. The Polling Alley features Mark Cunningham, the Overton Insights Poll Director and founder of the Beacon Poll, alongside Michael Melendez, co-founder and pollster at Tactical Campaigns. The Polling Alley is hosted by Overton Insights Poll Analyst, Olivia Michiels. Want to stay ahead of the data curve? Subscribe to The Polling Alley and join us as we decode the numbers behind the headlines. Follow us on X and Facebook - @OvertonInsights Visit our website - OvertonInsights.com

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  Episode #8

  Be Careful What You Wish For! Michigan Senate Primary Update

  Jul 16, 202616 minS1

  <p>Two new polls of Michigan's Democratic Senate primary released within days of each other disagree by twenty points on who's leading the field. Plus, who are "double haters" voting for in November?</p> <p>In this episode, we cover:</p> <p>- Which poll do you believe in Michigan's Senate primary? Detroit News and Data for Progress released dueling surveys on the Democratic Senate primary. One shows Haley Stevens up 7 points. The other, an internal poll from the Abdul El-Sayed campaign, shows him up 13 points.</p> <p>- Republicans, be careful what you wish for. Some Republicans are rooting...

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  Episode #5

  Episode 7

  Jul 10, 202642 minS1

  Two Senate candidates dropped out this week, and Maine Democrats scramble to find someone capable of beating Susan Collins. In this episode, we cover: - Who could replace Graham Platner in Maine and can anyone beat Susan Collins? Platner is out, and Maine Democrats have until the 27th to name a replacement with no clear heir apparent. We break down why PPP shows Troy Jackson leading while Janet Mills sits last, why Jared Golden's refusal to run changes everything, and why Collins is suddenly the favorite in a race Democrats thought they were winning. - Paxton vs. Talarico: is Texas actually a coin flip? A new NYT/CNN poll has the race tied 47–47, with Talarico running eight points ahead of the generic Democrat. We analyze whether that's a strong candidate or a weak Paxton, why the betting markets still give Paxton a 75% edge, and what "getting platnered" could mean before November. - Michigan gets even messier after McMorrow exits. With Mallory McMorrow out, it's Abdul El-Sayed vs. Haley Stevens, but McMorrow's name stays on the ballot and she's declined to endorse. We discuss why El-Sayed's frontrunner status may be overpriced, what Emily's List jumping to Stevens signals, and why Republicans are quietly rooting for the progressive. - In Georgia we look at why Jon Ossoff is cruising, whether his influence can land Keisha Lance Bottoms in the governor's mansion. The Polling Alley features Mark Cunningham, the Overton Insights Poll Director and founder of the Beacon Poll, alongside Michael Melendez, co-founder and pollster at Tactical Campaigns. The Polling Alley is hosted by Overton Insights Poll Analyst, Olivia Michiels. W ant to stay ahead of the data curve? Subscribe to The Polling Alley and join us as we decode the numbers behind the headlines. Follow us on X - @OvertonInsights Follow us on Facebook - @OvertonInsights Visit our website - OvertonInsights.com

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