
The Rent Report
013 - GTA Real Estate Finally Bottoming Out? With Rob Marsiglio
Follow Rob Marsiglio: YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@robertmarsigliorealtor X (Twitter): https://x.com/rob_siglio Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/robertmarsigliorealtor/ TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@robertmarsigliorealtor On this episode of The Rent Report, presented by Rentals.ca and Urbanation, we sit down with Rob Marsiglio, a realtor based in Ontario's Durham Region known for his widely followed weekly data updates on GTA sales and inventory, to unpack where the Greater Toronto Area housing market stands heading into the fall of 2026. We dig into TRREB's latest numbers and debate whether 2025 or 2026 will end up as the true bottom for GTA sales, why year-over-year comparisons can be misleading this deep into a correction, and why days on market may be a better signal than listings or sales counts. We also cover the shrinking gap between buyer and seller price expectations, the looming mortgage renewal wall hitting in early 2027, and how return-to-office mandates are reshaping demand between the city core and the outer GTA. The conversation turns to Canada's uneven housing map, tracing how the correction moved from Toronto outward to secondary markets and Calgary, and why Halifax and Saskatchewan keep defying the national trend. We also break down who is actually buying up sub-$400K condos, what bulk institutional purchases and rental conversions signal about market health, and how shrinking condo completions could set up a future supply crunch. The episode closes with Rob's practical advice for anyone weighing whether to buy in the GTA right now, from running the rent-versus-buy math to building a cushion into a mortgage pre-approval. The Rent Report is a podcast from Urbanation, in collaboration with Rentals.ca, breaking down the data shaping Canada's rental and real estate markets. ## Chapters 0:00 Intro 1:15 GTA Market Outlook Heading Into Fall 2:48 Rental vs. Resale Market Dynamics 3:31 TREB's Latest Numbers: Is 2025 or 2026 the Bottom? 5:28 Why Year-Over-Year Comparisons Can Mislead 6:58 The Buyer-Seller Price Gap 8:22 Mortgage Rates and the Renewal Wall 10:02 Debunking the "Dog Crate Condo" Myth 10:36 Return-to-Office and Shifting Buyer Appetite 11:43 How the Correction Spread Across Canada 12:54 Halifax and Nova Scotia's Defiant Market 13:07 Will GTA Prices Keep Falling? 15:04 Who's Buying Sub-$400K Condos? 16:48 The Coming Supply Gap and Affordability 17:45 Bulk Investor Purchases and Rental Conversions 18:49 Rob's Advice for GTA Buyers 21:51 Where to Find Rob Marsiglio 23:02 Outro

