The Trivium China Podcast

Trivium China is an analysis firm that specializes in monitoring Chinese government policy. From our offices in Beijing, Shanghai, and DC, we break down Beijing's latest moves on the economy, technology, energy, climate, and agriculture.

The Trivium China Podcast is a news podcast hosted by Trivium China, with 86 episodes on record and a Required Pod Score of 80.

Trivium China hosts The Trivium China Podcast, a news show with 86 episodes published.

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  The Trivium China Podcast

  Ep 88 - The Xi-Trump risk nobody's pricing in

  Sep 25, 202637 min

  US President Donald Trump met Xi Jinping on the tarmac at Joint Base Andrews on Wednesday – a rare honor last extended to the Pope by Barack Obama. The atmospherics of the greeting and the rest of Xi’s Washington trip were great. The actual deliverables of the visit were more muted. The one concrete outcome from Xi’s Washington visit was a two-month extension of the Busan trade truce, far short of the six-month floor most observers expected going in. On this quick-reaction episode of the Trivium China Podcast, host Andrew Polk sits down with Joe Mazur (Head of Geopolitical Research, based in Beijing) to unpack: Why “healthy competition” is a subtly new phrase in Beijing’s playbook, and what the shift in rhetoric signals US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s cryptic comment that China proposed “a bigger deal” over the weekend, and what that might mean Why AI got an explicit shout-out in Xi’s comments during the bilateral meetings, and how managing the technology is becoming the new arms-control issue of the US-China relationship The risk nobody’s pricing in: If this meeting doesn’t build real momentum, the two follow-up meetings penciled in for later this year may just quietly fall off the calendar Give it a listen and let us know what you think.

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  The Trivium China Podcast

  Ep 87 - Joerg Wuttke: China told Europe exactly how it would beat us. We didn't listen.

  Sep 22, 202651 min

  Back in 2017, China’s former SASAC chairman told Joerg Wuttke, then president of the EU Chamber of Commerce in China, precisely which industries China’s overcapacity machine would roll through next: EVs, batteries, solar, wind, basic chemicals. Fast forward a decade, and it happened exactly as he predicted. Joerg’s very blunt take: “China, in essence, is kind enough to tell us when and how they’re going to roll over us.” On this episode, Trivium China Podcast host Andrew Polk, along with co-host Cory Combs, sits down with Joerg – now a partner at DGA-Albright Stonebridge Group – to unpack: Why “China Shock 2.0” isn’t really a shock at all, but a systemic feature of how Beijing plans its economy – which was written out in black and white years in advance The shipping container math that captures the trade imbalance better than any dollar figure: one container now leaves Europe for China for every four that come back Why Wuttke thinks a stronger renminbi, not tariffs, may be China’s real concession on the table before October’s EU-China trade negotiation deadline The key Chinese tech sector Wuttke says Europe should consider closing its market to (and it’s not the one you’d guess) Why demographic collapse, not trade policy, might ultimately be China’s biggest vulnerability – and Europe’s unlikely opportunity This episode is another banger, y’all. You won’t want to miss it!

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  The Trivium China Podcast

  Ep 86 - The weaknesses behind China's booming exports

  Sep 18, 202630 min

  China’s manufacturing output just grew at the fastest pace in six months, but retail sales barely moved last month – and the gap between the two growth rates just hit its widest point in over three years. The upshot: Exports are still picking up the slack. But an increasing chunk of China’s export growth is simply down to price increases, not rising volumes. So even that stalwart economic prop is starting to wobble. On this quick-reaction episode of the Trivium China Podcast, Andrew Polk sits down with Joe Peissel (Trivium’s Lead Macroeconomist) to unpack: Why the gap between factory output and consumer spending just hit a three-year high, and why Beijing’s own policy playbook keeps worsening the imbalance The hidden story in China’s “booming” exports: value is up 25%, but volumes for things like semiconductors and appliances are actually falling The one semi-bright spot in the monthly macro-econ data: infrastructure investment is declining at a slower pace (hurrah!) Why Beijing’s new interest-rate subsidy for consumers is aimed at the wrong problem entirely Putting it all together: China’s economy will continue to decelerate into year-end. Give it a listen and let us know what you think.

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  The Trivium China Podcast

  Ep 85 - China’s approach to AI in the Global South: selling the razor blades, not the razor

  Sep 12, 20261h 20m

  Everyone keeps calling the US-China AI competition a race. But Eric Olander, co-founder of the China Global South Project, says that framing is wrong – because a race implies a finish line, and this competition doesn't have one. Eric’s view is that Chinese AI companies aren't necessarily looking to out innovate US closed-weight models. Instead, the goal for China is to become Android to America's Apple – 10% of the profit, but 90% of the world's users. On this week’s episode of the Trivium China Podcast, Eric discusses China’s approach to building AI offerings in the Global South with host Andrew Polk – but only after the two run through the flurry of travel and diplomacy Xi Jinping is undertaking throughout September. The two discuss the implications of Xi’s travels, then turn to China’s AI strategy in the region, touching on: How Xi turned a single stop in Egypt into a four-birds-one-stone diplomatic play, touching on the Iran war, the Israel-Palestine conflict, Africa-China relations, and the dynamics around Xinjiang all at once Why the India-China thaw is real but fragile, and why Xi and Modi's sideline meeting at the upcoming BRICS summit matters more than anything on the summit's official agenda Why China’s AI push into the Global South won’t really be about the models themselves – but about enabling those models with Huawei servers, support contracts, and services sold on top of free, open-weight code Why the "China is less secure" pitch against Chinese AI companies doesn't land in a Global South that trusts Washington about as little as it trusts Beijing Why nobody in the Global South expects much from Xi's Washington visit, and why the mood in Beijing right now is just as hardened as it is in DC Strap in – we cover a lot of ground in this one!

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  The Trivium China Podcast

  Ep 84 - Nobody knows where the line is, and that’s the problem

  Sep 4, 202653 min

  The US and China have been quietly testing each other’s limits all summer – and neither side actually knows where the breaking point is. To discuss the nature – and limits – of the fragile US-China economic détente, we are joined this week by Evan Medeiros, the Penner Family Chair and Director of Asian Studies at Georgetown University’s School of Foreign Service. Evan’s read: The US-China relationship is at an unstable equilibrium, and in for a snapback toward a much more contentious state of play. In this episode, host Andrew Polk and Trivium colleague Cory Combs sit down with Evan to unpack: Why Xi Jinping’s upcoming state visit to Washington, the first in over a decade, may be the one thing still holding the relationship together How the trade war became a supply chain war back in April 2025, and why tariffs aren’t the main event anymore Why China keeps reaching for chokepoints tied to US national security instead of hitting the broader economy, and what that reveals about Beijing’s actual theory of leverage The uncomfortable new front opening up: Beijing increasingly penalizing American companies for the crime of complying with US laws It’s another great discussion, so enjoy!

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