Episode #149
Right Sizing the Future with Gabe Cervantes | Think Forward EP 149
A lot of strategy collapses the moment a "guarantee" fails, and the easiest way to find those guarantees is to notice what you never question. We start with something as small as flipping a light switch, then zoom out with futurist Gabe Cervantes, Director of Scalable Foresight at the Institute for the Future, to ask what leaders should do when the assumptions behind business, society, and daily life stop holding up. The goal isn't predicting the future. It's building the habit of challenging what feels inevitable, so you can see disruption earlier and respond with intent. Gabe shares what he's learned building scalable strategic foresight as a design problem: how much futures thinking an organization actually needs, and who should own it. We talk through a counterintuitive rule, sometimes the most productive futures workshop happens when the boss steps out, because psychological safety is the fuel for "ridiculous" ideas that later become real insights. We also unpack the lonely futurist problem and why "never future alone" protects teams from bias and makes the capability last. From there we get into generative AI and the future of work. Gabe makes the case for augmentation over automation and effectiveness over raw efficiency, especially when AI can deliver confidently wrong answers with total conviction. He offers a practical way to use AI well in foresight work: challenge, augment, reframe. We close by connecting foresight to lived experience through Gabe's nomadic journey across 16 cities, remote work incentive programs, and the need for "islands of continuity" in a world that keeps moving. The companion Future Proof newsletter issue built on this conversation, Confidently Wrong, is out this week: https://befutureproof.substack.com/ / https://www.linkedin.com/newsletters/future-proof-7303526412311842816/ TIMESTAMPS 0:00 Challenging Assumptions With A Light Switch 0:34 Meet Gabe And The 10-Year Horizon 2:25 Measuring Foresight By Conversation 4:20 Building Scalable Foresight In Organizations 7:41 When The Boss Leaves The Room 10:57 Never Future Alone 12:58 Foresight Finds Better Questions 16:30 Generative AI For Augmentation 24:03 Challenge Augment Reframe With AI 25:58 Tipping Point For The Futures Field 28:01 Training Futurists To Drive Action 30:55 The Nomadic Futurist Across 16 Cities 37:39 Islands Of Continuity For Nomads 40:09 Signals We Might Be Missing 41:02 Career Advice And Legacy 45:51 Where To Find Gabe And Closing ABOUT GABE CERVANTES Gabe Cervantes is Director of Scalable Foresight at the Institute for the Future, where he helps organizations build the internal capability to think seriously about their own futures instead of outsourcing it to a single consultant or a single report. Gabe's LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/gabe-cervantes-ab147338/ Gabe's Firm: https://www.cfuturesconsulting.com RESOURCES MENTIONED SuperShifts, my book on the forces reshaping business and society: https://www.supershiftsbook.com/ Future Proof, my weekly newsletter on foresight and leadership: Substack: https://befutureproof.substack.com/ My website: https://www.stevenfisher.io/ My LinkdedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/stevenfisher/ SPONSOR THIS EPISODE Interested in sponsoring Think Forward or partnering as an affiliate? Email sfisher@humanfrontier.org to reach a growing audience of leaders and futurists thinking seriously about what's next. CONNECT Think Forward Show: https://thinkforward.buzzsprout.com/ LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/showcase/106181361/ Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/thinkfwdshow/ X/Twitter: https://x.com/ThinkFwdShow If you found something useful, subscribe, share this with a colleague, and leave a review so more people can find the show. What assumption do you think your organization needs to challenge next? Let me know in the comments. #Foresight #Leadership #FutureOfWork #ArtificialIntelligence #StrategicForesight #ThinkForward PodMatch PodMatch Automatically Matches Ideal Podcast Guests and Hosts For Interviews ORDER SUPERSHIFTS! bit.ly/supershifts Listen Now On: Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/think-forward-conversations-with-futurists-innovators-and-big-thinkers/id1736144515 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/0IOn8PZCMMC04uixlATqoO Web: https://thinkforward.buzzsprout.com/ Thank you for joining me on this ongoing journey into the future. Until next time, stay curious, and always think forward.
