Trade with Conviction

In-depth analysis of current trends and future expectations for different segments of the oil market, with a focus on understanding both the supply and demand dynamics at play.

Trade with Conviction is a business podcast hosted by Sparta, with 100 episodes on record and a Required Pod Score of 80. PitchCentric scores this show on Booking Probability, Listen Score, and live audience signals refreshed every 24 hours.

Sparta hosts Trade with Conviction, a business show with 100 episodes published.

Our AI reads these to draft pitches. Use them as grounding for a pitch that cites a real guest and a specific topic.

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  Episode #109

  Episode 106: Iran goes on the offensive. ADNOC's great milk run keeps flowing.

  Aug 13, 202625 min

  June Goh hosts this week with guest Jay Maroo, as Iran hardens its military stance and Hormuz risk lingers. They cover IEA and OPEC's diverging demand calls, ADNOC's transponder-dark shuttle tankers beating the blockade, a stubbornly wide Brent-Dubai EFS, and a tightening Atlantic diesel market. Get forward-looking insights straight to your inbox: https://spartacommodities.com/market-outlook-subscribe/?utm_source=spotify&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=marketoutlook_hub&utm_content=podcast Chapters: (00:42) Hormuz and Russia: sanctions escalate Two vessel attacks near Hormuz, Iran's military turns hawkish, and a Senate bill threatens 100% tariffs on Russian oil buyers. (04:20) IEA vs OPEC: the demand gap IEA turns more bearish on demand while OPEC stays positive, a 2.2 million barrel a day gap. (08:29) The great milk run: ADNOC beats the blockade ADNOC's dark shuttle tankers push UAE output above pre-war levels while Iraq, Kuwait and Saudi stay shut in. (11:20) Fuel oil and crude: the tightening squeeze Singapore fuel oil stays trapped in a tightening loop, ADNOC's tender drops a grade, and WAF premiums look shaky. (17:04) Middle distillates: refinery outages bite Refinery outages tighten Atlantic diesel further, yet Sikka's jet arb into Europe stays wide open. (21:22) Light ends: EBOB strength spreads west Low Rhine water lifts EBOB, US Gulf gasoline exports swell, and Singapore mogas turns bullish for September.

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  Episode #108

  Episode 105: Hormuz flips again and gasoline cracks get smashed

  Aug 6, 202635 min

  June Goh hosts Neil Crosby and Abhishek Kumar as Hormuz talks flip on and off again, smashing gasoline cracks. They cover Iranian tanker pileups, China's bigger export quotas, Russian diesel exemptions, Murban futures' wind-down, and a bullish fuel oil case into September. Get forward-looking insights straight to your inbox: https://spartacommodities.com/market-outlook-subscribe/?utm_source=spotify&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=marketoutlook_hub&utm_content=podcast Chapters: (00:43) Hormuz headlines: the on-off deal traders can't trade Iranian tankers pile up, Houthis strike again, and the binary Hormuz signal looks set to drag past the midterms. (08:21) EIA and China's quota puzzle US crude exports crash from 5.5m to 3.5m b/d as China lifts August export quotas, but quotas aren't shipments. (15:00) Gasoline cracks get smashed EBOB and RBOB spreads unwind hard on fading Hormuz risk and stabilising US stocks. Still no clean trade here. (22:21) Distillates and jet split east and west Asian gas oil rally stalls as China supply returns, while European diesel stays deep in deficit on Russian export curbs. (29:46) Crude quickfire: Murban futures die, Aramco cuts OSPs Ice Murban winds down, Aramco trims Arab Light 50 cents, and West African crude wins on Hormuz avoidance. (33:17)* Fuel oil: the Cape reroute bites Thirty extra days round the Cape means lower runs and less residue, a bullish setup for 0.5% sulfur into September.

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  Episode #107

  Episode 104: Brent whipsaws and USGC 3:2:1 margins explode. The diesel crisis behind it

  Jul 30, 202626 min

  June Goh hosts Abhishek Kumar and Jorge Molinero as Brent swings from $100 to $85 to $93 in a week. They cover Houthi attacks on Saudi infrastructure, Suez rerouting costs, a tightening diesel market, and diverging crude premiums across Hormuz and Red Sea choke points. Get forward-looking insights straight to your inbox: https://spartacommodities.com/market-outlook-subscribe/?utm_source=spotify&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=marketoutlook_hub&utm_content=podcast Chapters: (00:35) Oil's Wild Week: Houthi Attacks and the Yanbu Reroute Brent swung from $100 to $85 to $93 in days. Abhishek breaks down Jizan refinery strikes and Suez rerouting costs. (07:22) Rhine Crisis and Record-Tight US Barrels Kaub gauge nears critical levels as US crude and gasoline stocks hit multi-year lows despite record refinery runs. (09:42) Gasoline and Naphtha: East Beats West East-West spread flips as European E10 blending reopens and the TAR arb into PAD1 looks set to widen. (14:10) Diesel Squeeze and the Freight Spike Behind It TC14 rates jump on tonne mile demand as Jazan's outage and a possible Russian export ban extension tighten Europe further. (20:55) Crude Flows Rewrite Around Two Choke Points Murban and Melbourne premiums diverge as Asian refiners route around both Hormuz and the Red Sea. (24:15) Fuel Oil: HSFO Eases, VLSFO Stays Tight August HSFO cracks pull back from highs while VLSFO cracks sit near $23 on limited medium crude supply.

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  Episode #106

  Episode 103: The Houthis hit Yanbu. Where does crude go now?

  Jul 23, 202629 min

  Houthi attacks on Saudi vessels loading at Yanbu leave seven million barrels of crude searching for a route. Felipe Elink Schuurman, James Noel-Beswick and Jay Maroo on Suezmax freight, why diesel still looks undervalued, and the crude spreads with room to run. Get forward-looking insights straight to your inbox. Chapters: (01:11) Risk stacks up: Houthis, Yanbu and CPC — Attacks on Saudi vessels at Yanbu and 1.5m b/d of Kazakh crude offline stack the risk higher. (03:48) Seven million barrels with nowhere to go — Yanbu crude needs a new route north via Suez or around the Cape. Costlier, slower, tighter. (08:44) Diesel's worst-case setup is building — Jody confirms weak EU demand; diesel still looks undervalued with Russia, Mideast and Yanbu supply all at risk. (19:01) Singapore rips, Europe waits — Singapore spreads break every moving average; Gulf Coast dominates as Europe eyes September arbs. (23:34) The bull case for Brent spreads — Brent Dubai and CPC keep the long alive, but the cleaner trade sits in freight. (27:27) Freight: the trade with conviction — Suezmax TD20 and TD3C as Yanbu and Houthi inefficiencies ripple through shipping.

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  Episode #105

  Episode 102: The ceasefire is dead. Why is crude still asleep?

  Jul 16, 202642 min

  Felipe Elink Schuurman, Neil Crosby and Jay Maroo on the collapsed Iran ceasefire, Brent's jump from 72 to 85, and the market fatigue no one's pricing. Diesel cracks and gasoline spreads hit records while crude stays quiet, with the Russian diesel ban now double the Hormuz problem. Get forward-looking insights straight to your inbox: https://spartacommodities.com/market-outlook-subscribe/?utm_source=spotify&utm_medium=audio&utm_campaign=podcast Chapters (01:41) The ceasefire is dead, and the market is tired MOU collapse, escalation back, Brent at 85, but fatigue means no one wants to price the risk. (12:16) Diesel: the Russian ban that dwarfs Hormuz Russian diesel exports near 1m bpd gone, cracks and spreads bullish, Hogo the solver into Europe. (21:52) Crude: enough for now, bullish later Asians scramble for WTI and SPR barrels, Europe long crude, WTI-Brent widens, Brent bullish eventually. (29:49) Gasoline: cracks at ten-year highs Spreads and cracks at records, New York arbs shut for August, Singapore spreads the trade to watch.

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