Episode #15
Turtle Talk Podcast Episode 15: Inside the Loop — Uncertainty in War and the Markets (Part Two)
The conclusion of our two-part special. The trend followers are joined again by Mark "Moose" McGrath to walk the final four strategic ideas from the old military thinkers, asking the same question at each: does the answer hold on both sides of the door, for warfare and for trend following alike? Part One was about the condition we all work under. Part Two is about the craft — what you actually do with it. How you win when your chance finally comes, when to let go, how you survive a blow, and the kind of mind that holds it all together. A smaller room this time. Mike Melissinos and Ben Ford couldn't join us, so Jerry carries the trend following side and Moose heads up the strategists' side on his own. In this episode ⚔️ The Orthodox and the Unorthodox — Jerry on 1993, the year one coffee trade carried everything, and the client who said "no commodities" and then asked why he broke even. Moose on Boyd harnessing Sun Tzu, Cheng and Qi, and why surprise is an output, not an input. ️ The Culminating Point — Why Clausewitz is "the John Maynard Keynes of warfighting." Jerry on cocoa, and why the only correct answer to "where did you get out?" is "I didn't." Moose on James Hunt versus Niki Lauda, 1976, and what happens when you check out after the win. ️ Defence in Depth — Jerry on why the trend follower is thankfully no expert, and why the wide net is offence as much as defence. Moose on variety, rapidity, harmony and initiative — and why Marines aren't really built for defence at all. The Strategist's Mind — Rich on the trade that broke his predicting habit: a small supplier, a bullish earnings report, and the one contract clause he never read. Moose on figure and ground. Adam on type one and type two errors. Jerry on why no book replaces a mentor. A note on what's next: this may be our last episode for a while. We're taking a well-earned break as we consider changing the format and bringing you something rather different. Nothing is decided yet — we'll keep you posted on when, or if, the show returns in a new shape. Fifteen episodes in, thank you for turning up. ️ Guest Mark "Moose" McGrath / No Way Out podcast: https://www.youtube.com/@NoWayOutPodcast Books Complex Adaptive Markets → https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0FKZP8FQJ The Fractals of Finance (foreword by Jerry Parker) → https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0GHTH1WNK The Aussie Turtles Trend Following Guide (with Adam Havryliv) → https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0FT1NCXP4 Stay systematic. Stay patient. And may the trend be with you. #TrendFollowing #OODALoop #Trading #Uncertainty
