What's The Big Deal?

Get the view from the inside. Every week, Graham Smith (ex-Ares) and Deborah Taylor (ex-Barclays) take a look at Wall Street’s headline-grabbing deals. From mega-mergers and hostile takeovers to complex private credit transactions, they break down the why, the how, and the who behind the numbers.

What's The Big Deal? is a business podcast hosted by Wall Street Prep, with 27 episodes on record and a Required Pod Score of 80.

Wall Street Prep hosts What's The Big Deal?, a business show with 27 episodes published.

Our AI reads these to draft pitches. Use them as grounding for a pitch that cites a real guest and a specific topic.

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  Episode #31

  Did Claude Just Replace the Equity Research Analyst?

  Sep 24, 202634 minS1

  This week Debs gives Claude a job she did for years at Barclays: write an equity research note on a company of its choosing. It picked Chipotle. Its first pass came back neutral with an equal weight rating, so Debs pushed it to take a view. The result is a sell rating, a $28.50 target price on a $33.68 share price and a note titled Guac is Extra. Debs walks through the note the way a research desk would. The front page is the only part most clients read, so the rating, target price, downside and thesis all have to land in seconds. Claude's thesis is that Chipotle's recovery in traffic and revenue is already in the share price while its margins remain well below 2024 levels, with all three of its valuation scenarios coming in under the current price. Graham reads it as an outsider and finds the holes a client would. The sell rating sits on earnings forecasts above consensus, which is the opposite of what a bearish call usually looks like. One of the thesis bullets is written in analyst-sounding language neither host can decode. And Chipotle's enterprise value comes in below its market cap, a net cash position that raises questions the note never answers. Along the way the pair cover what analysts can access that Claude can't, why liking a company has nothing to do with a rating, catalysts and risks to the thesis, Debs's own buy call on a company that went bust within six months and whether AI shrinks the sell side or makes it better. The sell rating in this episode was generated by Claude at the host's prompting as a demonstration of the research workflow. It is not a recommendation. Topics covered: → Claude writing an equity research note on a company it chose itself → What sell-side analysts see that public sources don't → Sell side vs buy side research → Why the front page of a research note matters most → Target price, downside and conviction → A sell rating on forecasts above consensus → Catalysts and risks to the thesis → How AI is changing coverage and whether equity research survives it Why Wall Street Prep? Wall Street Prep is the trusted training provider for the world's top investment banks, private equity firms, Fortune 1000 companies and business schools. Our online training and instructor-led boot camps are direct adaptations of our corporate training, making Wall Street Prep the ideal choice for those looking to break into finance. DISCLAIMER: The information provided in this video is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Investing involves risk, and you may lose some or all of your capital. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Please conduct your own due diligence or consult with a certified professional before making any financial decisions. Financial & Valuation Modeling Certification Program Premium Package (DISCOUNT CODE: WTBD): https://www.wallstreetprep.com/self-study-programs/premium-package/ WTBD Newsletter: https://webmail.wallstreetprep.com/whats-the-big-deal Socials: LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/wall-street-prep/ Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/wallstreetprep/ Resources: https://linktr.ee/wallstreetprep

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  Episode #30

  Can Anthropic's Claude Build Its Own $2 Trillion IPO Roadshow Deck?

  Sep 17, 202639 minS1

  This week Graham and Debs take on Anthropic's IPO, the offering investors are projecting at around $2 trillion on a reported $100bn raise, with pricing expected before the US midterms. No S-1 yet, so no official financials, but the roadshow is coming, and the pair asked two frontier models to draft the roadshow presentation from public information alone: Claude Fable 5.1 and GPT-6 Astra, same prompt. The result surprised both of them. Graham's verdict, before either deck is on screen, is that ChatGPT may have done a better job of selling Claude than Claude did. Fable's version is careful, correct and, in Debs's word, uninspiring: a blank offering summary, a why-we-win page that reads like a list, and a TAM slide with a number so specific it raises more questions than it answers. Astra's version is prettier, better written and pulls out the metrics an investor would actually ask about, from the valuation history from the last private round. Neither deck is something a banker could walk into a meeting with. Around the decks, the episode is a working guide to what a roadshow is for. Debs, who sat through hundreds of these, explains why the deck matters when investors already have the S-1: it's the prompt for the conversation with management, and the meeting is where investors decide whether they trust the people with their capital. Graham digs into the number everyone will fight over, the revenue run-rate, and the range of ways it can be calculated, from last month times twelve to last week times fifty-two. They also cover revenue quality and switching costs, the extinction-risk headlines and what they might mean for the IPO's timing, regulation, Nvidia's reported role as an anchor investor and what a 31x revenue multiple looks like next to SpaceX's 100x. Topics covered: → Where Anthropic's IPO process stands and what's reported so far → What a roadshow deck is for when investors already have the S-1 → Fable 5.1 vs GPT-6 Astra drafting the same roadshow presentation → Revenue run-rates, and how much judgment goes into one → Revenue quality, enterprise mix and switching costs → TAM slides and the trouble with very specific trillions → AI risk, regulation and the timing of the listing → Nvidia as a reported anchor investor → 31x revenue vs SpaceX's 100x → Which model built the better deck, and why neither is ready Why Wall Street Prep? Wall Street Prep is the trusted training provider for the world's top investment banks, private equity firms, Fortune 1000 companies and business schools. Our online training and instructor-led boot camps are direct adaptations of our corporate training, making Wall Street Prep the ideal choice for those looking to break into finance. DISCLAIMER: The information provided in this video is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Investing involves risk, and you may lose some or all of your capital. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Please conduct your own due diligence or consult with a certified professional before making any financial decisions. Financial & Valuation Modeling Certification Program Premium Package (DISCOUNT CODE: WTBD): https://www.wallstreetprep.com/self-study-programs/premium-package/ WTBD Newsletter: https://webmail.wallstreetprep.com/whats-the-big-deal Socials: LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/wall-street-prep/ Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/wallstreetprep/ Resources: https://linktr.ee/wallstreetprep

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  Episode #29

  Did AI Just Replace the Private Credit Analyst? (GPT-6 vs Fable 5.1)

  Sep 10, 202625 minS1

  OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra is days old, so Graham and Debs put it straight to work against Claude Fable 5.1 on a real job: write a private credit memo for the same hospital deal Claude analyzed from the equity side last week. Same document, same prompt, live on screen, with Astra still generating when the recording started. The two models read the deal completely differently. Astra proposed $155M of sponsor equity to fund future cash burn and a tiny $4M revolver, a credit memo in form with no actual credit in it. Fable went the other way: a $30M term loan, an undrawn ABL revolver and a delayed draw term loan, a classic private credit structure for a business where CapEx is outpacing EBITDA. One of them is arguably overlevering the deal and the other is arguably underlevering it, and neither explained the one thing that might justify a loan here at all, the hard asset value of the hospital real estate. That gap becomes the lesson. Graham walks through how a credit investor actually thinks: your upside is capped at a contractual return, so the whole discipline is downside protection, and at a 1.3x gross underwrite it only takes a few losses to wreck a fund. The pair dig into the EBITDA bridge ($4.5M actual to $9M normalized, with the usual sell-side aggressiveness in between), why cash flow and not EBITDA is what a lender lives on, how structure prices perceived risk, and why even a lender's memo should show the sponsor's equity returns, because deals only get done when they work for everyone. Both AI memos missed that too. Topics covered: → Fable 5.1 and GPT-6 Astra writing the same private credit memo, live → Two wildly different structures for one deal → Why neither model spotted the real estate lending angle → How credit investors think: capped upside, downside protection → The EBITDA bridge and why cash is what lenders care about → Structuring around risk: leverage, pricing and protections → Why credit memos still show equity returns → Which model you should trust (neither, yet) Why Wall Street Prep? Wall Street Prep is the trusted training provider for the world's top investment banks, private equity firms, Fortune 1000 companies and business schools. Our online training and instructor-led boot camps are direct adaptations of our corporate training, making Wall Street Prep the ideal choice for those looking to break into finance. DISCLAIMER: The information provided in this video is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Investing involves risk, and you may lose some or all of your capital. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Please conduct your own due diligence or consult with a certified professional before making any financial decisions. Financial & Valuation Modeling Certification Program Premium Package (DISCOUNT CODE: WTBD): https://www.wallstreetprep.com/self-study-programs/premium-package/ WTBD Newsletter: https://webmail.wallstreetprep.com/whats-the-big-deal Socials: LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/wall-street-prep/ Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/wallstreetprep/ Resources: https://linktr.ee/wallstreetprep

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  Episode #28

  AI for Private Equity: Using Claude to Analyze Deals Like a Pro

  Sep 3, 202650 minS1

  This week Graham and Debs give Claude Fable a first-year private equity associate's job: take a real deal document, digest it, pull out the risks and highlights, write the investment committee memo and build the indicative returns model. The prompt was a few lines. The output is a seven-page IC memo, executive summary, entry valuation, investment thesis, operating cases, sources and uses, returns analysis, diligence items, with a working LBO model behind it, including the returns attribution analysis Claude added without being asked. The document itself is a rarity. CIMs stay confidential, Graham has read thousands and doesn't have a single one, but a Massachusetts rule forced this sale process into the open when a not-for-profit hospital was converted to for-profit in 2010. That makes it a genuine test: a real CIM, the way an associate would actually receive it. The hosts then push the model the way an investment committee would. The EBITDA bridge runs from $4.5M actual to $9M normalized, which is the quality of earnings question that decides whether you're paying 4.7x or 10.4x for the same business. Base case returns come out at 2.3x and an 18% IRR. Debs challenges Claude to rerun the deal as a platform build, and the rerun jumps to 2.7x and a 27% IRR on $7M of synergies, with one misread the hosts catch immediately and a reprompting lesson attached. Along the way: what a CIM actually is, how investment committee works stage by stage, and what happened when this deal traded in real life, an ending none of the models saw coming. Timestamps: 00:00 — Cold open 00:37 — This week: Claude does an associate's job 02:50 — What a CIM actually is 09:20 — Finding a deal document that's actually public 11:33 — A word from Wall Street Prep 12:04 — The seven-page memo and the simple prompt 14:20 — The EBITDA bridge: $4.5M or $9M? 16:36 — Entry valuation and the returns math 22:48 — Key risks and mitigants 26:07 — Challenging Claude: rerun it as a platform build 27:01 — Inside the LBO model 33:01 — Operating cases and debt mechanics 38:25 — Returns, and the attribution Claude added unprompted 41:45 — The platform rerun and the reprompt lesson 46:05 — What actually happened to this deal 50:24 — End Topics: → Giving Claude a real CIM and an associate's screening job → The prompt that produced a seven-page IC memo and LBO model → What a CIM is and why these documents stay private → How investment committee actually works, stage by stage → The EBITDA bridge and quality of earnings → Entry valuation, sources and uses and the returns math → Challenging Claude to rerun the deal as a platform build → The returns attribution Claude included unprompted → What actually happened to this deal Why Wall Street Prep? Wall Street Prep is the trusted training provider for the world's top investment banks, private equity firms, Fortune 1000 companies and business schools. Our online training and instructor-led boot camps are direct adaptations of our corporate training, making Wall Street Prep the ideal choice for those looking to break into finance. DISCLAIMER: The information provided in this video is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Investing involves risk, and you may lose some or all of your capital. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Please conduct your own due diligence or consult with a certified professional before making any financial decisions. Financial & Valuation Modeling Certification Program Premium Package (DISCOUNT CODE: WTBD): https://www.wallstreetprep.com/self-study-programs/premium-package/ WTBD Newsletter: https://webmail.wallstreetprep.com/whats-the-big-deal Socials: LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/wall-street-prep/ Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/wallstreetprep/ Resources: https://linktr.ee/wallstreetprep

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• 

  Episode #27

  Can Claude's AI Agents Build a Better M&A Model than Investment Bankers?

  Aug 27, 202624 minS1

  This week Debs and Graham run the numbers on the proposed Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern merger, a deal that would create a $250bn rail network. Debs built a short form merger model for it, and how she built it is the real story. Fable burns through tokens fast, so Debs asked Claude to delegate the build: Sonnet for the data mining and consensus estimates, Fable for planning and structure, Opus to stress test the logic at the end, with Claude supplying the prompts for each handover. Switching models manually in the Excel add-in is clunky, but it worked and she never hit her token limit. Timestamps: 00:00 — Cold open 00:43 — Intro: the Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern deal 01:48 — Why US rail is the way it is 04:03 — Delegating the build to Claude's agents 05:13 — A word from Wall Street Prep 05:45 — Which tasks go to Sonnet, which to Opus 06:58 — Why the Excel add-in makes this clunky 11:21 — Inside the merger model 12:51 — $2.75bn of synergies: material or punchy? 14:45 — Asset step ups and the tax treatment 16:22 — EPS accretion and pro forma leverage 19:33 — Reprompting live for standalone leverage 20:19 — Why the sensitivity tables are so hard to audit 22:23 — So is the deal any good? Topics covered: → Using Fable as an orchestrator and delegating to Sonnet and Opus → Which tasks are worth delegating, and what the handovers cost in tokens → Building a short form merger model in the Excel add-in → Consideration mix, synergies and whether $2.75bn is punchy → EPS accretion, pro forma leverage and why the two go together → Asset step ups, and why they don't help in a stock deal → Where the model falls short: standalone leverage, data tables → Whether the deal itself is actually interesting Why Wall Street Prep? Wall Street Prep is the trusted training provider for the world's top investment banks, private equity firms, Fortune 1000 companies and business schools. Our online training and instructor-led boot camps are direct adaptations of our corporate training, making Wall Street Prep the ideal choice for those looking to break into finance. DISCLAIMER: The information provided in this video is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Investing involves risk, and you may lose some or all of your capital. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Please conduct your own due diligence or consult with a certified professional before making any financial decisions. Financial & Valuation Modeling Certification Program Premium Package (DISCOUNT CODE: WTBD): https://www.wallstreetprep.com/self-study-programs/premium-package/ WTBD Newsletter: https://webmail.wallstreetprep.com/whats-the-big-deal Socials: LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/wall-street-prep/ Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/wallstreetprep/ Resources: https://linktr.ee/wallstreetprep

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