
World at Odds
World at Odds Episode09 | We're Back: World Cup Confessions, Betting the 2026 Midterms & NFL Value Picks
We're back , and it's midterms season. After a long summer hiatus (Matt got his tonsils out at an age where you really shouldn't, Andrew watched wildebeest get eaten in Tanzania), we return to Matt's favorite thing to bet on: the 2026 midterm elections on Polymarket. The main event: the weird gap in the markets right now. Eight of the ten closest Senate races lean Democrat, and Republicans are still favored to keep the Senate. We get into why that's not actually crazy, what mid-decade redistricting does to a blue wave, why the House looks like a lock, and the 20-unit bet Matt just put on R Senate / D House at 40 cents. His third-biggest bet of the year. Also: the World Cup postmortem . Andrew built a basket, held it like he tells everyone to, and profited when Spain won. Matt was long Argentina, turned down a guaranteed 10 units chasing 90, and even extended his flight to watch it go wrong. Guess who's smug this episode. Plus early Super Bowl baskets (we like Bengals, Lions and Chargers; we don't like the Chiefs and Bills prices), the SpaceX ticker bet finally resolves, and Andrew bets against Google shipping a new Gemini Pro model by August 14. Insider trading, but as a spectator. Links from this episode: Balance of Power, 2026 midterms (Polymarket, referral link): https://polymarket.com/event/balance-of-power-2026-midterms?r=TaxIsTheft RealClearPolling generic ballot, this-day-in-history vs past midterms: https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/this-day-in-history/generic-ballot/2026-vs-2022-vs-2018-vs-2014-vs-2010 Nate Silver's Silver Bulletin: https://www.natesilver.net

